Not trying to be a party pooper but I think the takeover talk is...

Not trying to be a party pooper but I think the takeover talk is simply that, talk. Whether an offer was made at 50c or $1.22 would make no difference if shareholders were not willing to sell and either Mulpha or SGP can prevent each other from a full takeover just as either can prevent an outside full takeover bid being successful.

That doesn't mean outside bids are ruled out, just more that they are unlikely.

FKP gave a possible NTA figure of 90c if further writedowns were to be incurred but that would definitely be a very bottom of cycle valuation. Higher property cycle broker estimates indicated shareprices valuing FKP around $6-$7 including a premium for the LLC bid at a time when FKP NTA were around $5.00 from memory.

Mid cycle valuations would probably realise NTA somewhere between $1.50 - $2.00 and analysts are now suggesting that is where REIT's should be valued going forward, ie. based on growing property values and earnings and, post capital raisings, after what they believe is the bottom of the cycle.

FKP has about another 100% - 150% to go to get to that mid cycle valuation on a NTA perpective.

Shareprice wise, you would add to FKP a slight premium for it's diversification, plus it's growing percentage of recurring income, plus it's leadership status in the retirement sector, plus it's activities are all focussed in Australia (which most other REIT's are now trying to do at huge cost), plus a premium factor for the possibility that two of it's largest shareholders may at some point want to own a lot more of the business.

All up, post the dilution, and based on the comments above, even $2.00 may be fairly conservative going forward 12 months from now.