I also have a lot of money in BAR and CNJ and so I'm very keen to have my thoughts and optimism critiqued and to come to my senses if need be! But I think this is a legitimately undervalued resource - SP to viably recoverable metal. I think the market is simply skeptical of the JV because there's been so little marketing information - it's just not been clearly presented to the world because they are not yet ready. For example nothing has been mentioned about Creasy's ownership of half the resource and that discussions have/are taking place, and there is nothing on the website saying that they could be the lowest CAPEX OPEX cobalt play etc etc. But if you call the directors you can have a chat about these things. Are they lying - I don't think so.
A few things to bear in mind re you concerns of a leaky boat: 1 - there have been high volumes trading over the last month or so, but very few new voices (nervous small investors like us) on HC - BAR or CNJ. CNJ has been virtually silent. This all says to me that smart money/money in the know is accumulating gradually. 2: There is no shorting going on according the The Shortman website. 3: This is a tiny stock so if there was a leaky boat, selling of any decent holding would completely crash it. We'd know about it! 4: There was a $300,000 off market placement made in CNJ a few months back. Who too? Someone who knows the directors personally. So either the directors shafted someone...or an associate wanted in. My conclusion - dozens of people know what is going on behind the scenes (at the engineering consultancies etc), some of them may also inside trade, but we have no evidence of dumping shares or shorting, only of accumulation.
My experience watching other micro junior miners is that small investors are very hesitant until a clear picture is painted for a path forwards - scoping study or off-take etc or placement. Essentially no one takes a junior very seriously, no matter how good the resource details until someone big takes them seriously. Look at AJM last year - all the info was there, they had JORC and a plan, but was worth nothing until their scoping study and subsequent off take and placement by Lion Energy - then their SP jumped many-fold.
Essentially I think the current SP is about right given what the market knows. But if the scoping study is positive, then we will likely get an off-take or a deal will be done with a big player (my money is on a deal with Glencore - nearby, existing cobalt buyers, lots of money to make the project happen) as it's a very cheap way for a company to secure future cobalt supply, and if that happens the market will suddenly gain confidence and the SP will shoot up.
Please pull any of this reasoning apart fellow micro cap investors. Obviously this is a big bet...
Cheers all. Bring-on August.
Solarbat
BAR Price at posting:
6.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
