@Ryanb the analysis raises some good points to reflect on but...

@Ryanb

the analysis raises some good points to reflect on but overall suffers bady from the analyst's lack of familiarity with a lot of nuance

the key to understanding some of the revenue'gap' flow is to recognise the company did 2 months of mainly direct sales - then shifted to more focus on large scale 3rd party distribution- which has a longer lag time due to needing to train 3rd party installers and have 3rd party sellers get sales traction

So you've effectively got that initial Australia-only direct sales EOI group that should generate fastest sales - but income from the 3rd party distribution generally wont hit for at least 4-6 months becvause of that longer sales/install cycle- but once it does flow the flows should be bigger because they have bigger sales and installlation networks

Its pretty clear from the number of anecdotal examples that BUD's service is now installed an a wide range of pretty lare scale places.

i also suspect some meaningful revenues may hit the books earlier than guided.

experienced ceos generally put a 'one reporting period' lag into forecasts - to allow for all the things that can go wrong to go wrong. thats just te human condition

so I actually think december quarterly (end Jan) could provide some meaningful upside surprise if Digicel Carribean + Australian workflow has moved smoothly. but it shouldnt be expected - just something thes possible - not probable

when here are so many people and so many moving parts its inevitable that delays will occur from unexpected sources in at least some cases

the 'analyst' also doesnt appear to understand how the service is priced - which is understandable given how the company has been deliberately vague on this (even misleading it could be alleged though that would be harsh).

but if you are going to analyse revenue you really need to have that understnding nailed down if you are going to use it as a basis to critique from

thats one reason i say stock is relatively underpriced atm vs its peers - market is pricing it only on the 'minimum guarantees' (and its still only on (~30 p/s ex cash on that basis vs peers on 80x )- and unwilling to apply a price on 'per Ohm system'. (ie 1500 estimated systems @ 12000per annum @say 80% usage +2m annual non Ohm contracts)

because mgt hasnt given us any confidence on the latter front - so what market is banking on is linear 3 yr min guratees from digicel carribean etc

i think there's every prospect of outperformance - but the good news is - you dont have to pay for it in the current sp. you can just buy it for meeting the minimum guranteed sales at half the price of its peers - and get data sales + ouperformance above minimums for 'free'