interesting sentiment in eto's ...

Hmmm ... for those LONG in NAB there is some interesting ETO action.

Worth noting the volume today way OTM $30.00 Calls and open interest of $32.00 for Oct series.

NABZX C 28/10/04 26.00 1.540 1.660 1.620 14:26 3 414 1000
NABJE C 28/10/04 26.50 1.170 1.215 1.155 14:16 6 664 1000
NABZU C 28/10/04 27.00 0.800 0.820 0.810 14:34 17 1463 1000
NAB8N C 28/10/04 27.50 0.500 0.525 0.500 14:38 35 1975 1000
NAB5F C 28/10/04 28.00 0.285 0.315 0.305 14:38 117 2384 1000
NAB4H C 28/10/04 28.50 0.150 0.170 0.155 14:25 46 1161 1000
NAB4U C 28/10/04 29.00 0.000 0.110 0.090 06/09/04 0 1163 1000
NAB1A C 28/10/04 29.50 0.040 0.070 0.070 02/09/04 0 1246 1000
NAB3M C 28/10/04 30.00 0.010 0.040 0.030 14:39 205 2760 1000
NAB6I C 28/10/04 30.50 0.015T 0.015T 0.035 18/08/04 0 988 1000
NAB3N C 28/10/04 31.00 0.008T 0.008T 0.020 01/09/04 0 2515 1000
NAB5U C 28/10/04 31.50 0.004T 0.004T 0.030 31/08/04 0 942 1000
NAB3O C 28/10/04 32.00 0.000 0.035 0.015 06/09/04 0 3200 1000

As posted previously our opinion was that NAB was very oversold in the $26.30 range and our LONG pick was NABJ7 at $0.10 with last today at $0.22 or +120%.

IMHO there is still considerable 'meat on the bone' here and with a favourable Imp/Vol (11-12% range) not too late to go LONG or add.

BC projection looks like this ...

SCENARIO: LONG STOCK: NAB 07/09/04 > 20/10/04 = +/-
code c/p expiry strike i/vol 27.270 > 28.846 = 5.78%
NABZU C 28/10/04 27.00 12.090% 0.7503 > 1.8758 = 150.00%
NAB8N C 28/10/04 27.50 12.020% 0.4701 > 1.3768 = 192.90%
NAB5F C 28/10/04 28.00 12.520% 0.2902 > 0.8874 = 205.73%
NAB4H C 28/10/04 28.50 12.586% 0.1601 > 0.4529 = 182.86%
NAB4U C 28/10/04 29.00 13.007% 0.0896 > 0.1664 = 85.72%
NAB1A C 28/10/04 29.50 14.648% 0.0693 > 0.0544 = -21.42%

NAB88 C 25/11/04 27.00 12.172% 0.9305 > 1.9921 = 114.09%
NAB8E C 25/11/04 27.50 11.602% 0.6200 > 1.5153 = 144.41%
NAB87 C 25/11/04 28.00 11.975% 0.4202 > 1.0866 = 158.58%
NABKE C 25/11/04 28.50 11.725% 0.2508 > 0.7074 = 182.08%
NAB84 C 25/11/04 29.00 11.284% 0.1305 > 0.4034 = 209.02%
NABKT C 25/11/04 29.50 11.336% 0.0699 > 0.2078 = 197.36%

THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS ARE THEORETICAL AND DO NOT REPRESENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE OR OTHERWISE.

Cheers ... tight stops.


This is only my view ... read the red stuff.