The market is always dynamic. Technical Analysis is always contingent and conditional. Views will change as the market changes. I'm not God - and I'm not omniscient. And I certainly don't pretend to be. Anybody who thinks they are will be taught a serious lesson about hubris.
I do continue to stand, however, by my suggestion that we will be significantly higher in the medium term.
One week to the downside doesn't deter me from that.
I would also point out that in my last weekend report I suggested that our market would be down this week - based on technical analysis.
Yes, we're mired in something of a slough at the moment. But I expect that we will overcome that and head higher based on the large accumulation which occurred earlier in July.
August, seasonally, is usually good for the Ozzie market. We're only one week into August.
Technical Analysis is not perfect - nobody says it is. But it better than throwing darts to pick stocks. And just as good as any other method. I'm talking, of course, about fundamental analysis.
On Wednesday morning, I went to a once-a-year seminar organised by Q-Super to report to members on their funds performances. Q-Super is one of the better performing large super funds in Australia.
I also went to their seminar one year ago. One year ago, they stated at that seminar that members should expect lower returns. hmmmmm. But, the one-year return on the Q-Super Balanced Fund was 12.4%. Much better than the pundits (some of the best in Australia using fundamental analysis) had been predicting.
Here's a quote from this year's booklet:
*We have been saying that it is a low return environment.
*But, returns on most assets have surprised to the upside?
*Have these strong returns changed our view?
*No, we still believe it is a low return environment.
So, after one-year of being wrong, the Q-Super gurus continue to hold to their view that returns will be low as time goes on. Q-Super members, of course, are delighted that the gurus in charge of their super funds have been proven wrong by the market - for the time being.
I'd also point out while you are selectively throwing stones at particular points I and other people have been making - that a few days I suggested a reason why the (then) head/n/shoulders pattern in Financials X-PT might fail. (It wasn't I who talked about ascending triangles.)
Here's an updated chart of the XXJ that I showed a few days ago:
Black Swans happen. We saw one yesterday when the market thumped the big Banks after the ANZ announcement, but technical analysis did point to the possibility of downside in the Financials X-PT.
The Australian "market" as measured by the XJO and XAO is heavily skewed by the Financials. If we look at a more evenly balanced measure of the market (the Mid-Cap 50), the market is not looking so pessimistic:
I often cite the 100-Day MA (dashed blue line on the above chart) as a key marker to be noticed. XMD is right at that marker now. Expect some difficulty in getting over that line.
Until the 50-Day MA gets above the 100-Day MA - this market will remain fragile.
Your attack reminds me so much of the comments we see often on this forum that the Australian market is, for example, "crap" and other such crass expletives. Those come out whenever the market has a set-back. Last week, in my weekly report, I noted that the Australian market was the best performing market of the major world indices I report. The knockers were, of course, silent.
I don't pretend that that Australian stocks are world beaters. They're not. Our economy is suffering from the inevitable failure off a once-in-a-generation mining boom. Australian stocks can only be expected to muddle through at best in such an environment. But that's the market that we have to deal with. Throwing stones and shouting insults don't help deal with it.
Cool heads and some rational thinking is better than that. And Technical Analysis can help.
That's enough defensiveness for a week or three. I now have a Daily Report to write.
Good luck to all. Of course, luck has little to do with it.
And just as good as any other method. I'm talking, of course, about fundamental analysis.
(20min delay)