Interesting stock, page-87

Hey mate I'm too lazy to split it into 1H/2H, but for the full year I get the following:

Historically I think 1H is much stronger than 2H (incl. Christmas and January clearance) so I don't disagree with your numbers.

$AUD	ASX:MYR	(pre-AASB16)
Income Statement	FY18	FY19	FY20		Bull	Base	Bear
Sales	3101	2992	2519		3000	2900	2800
GP	1184	1162	957.3		1200	1131	1078
GP%	38.2%	38.8%	38.0%		40.0%	39.0%	38.5%
CODB	-1035	-1002	-864		-900	-922	-949
CODB%	33.4%	33.5%	34.3%		30.0%	32.0%	33.5%
EBITDA (underlying)	149	160	93.3		300	209	129
EBITDA %	4.8%	5.3%	3.7%		10.0%	7.2%	4.6%
D&A	-94	-102	-100		-100	-100	-100
EBIT (underlying)	55	58	-6.7		200	109	29
Interest	-9.00	-11.5	-10.6		-10	-10	-10
Tax	8.8	-13.8	5.4		57	30	6
NPAT (underlying)	54.8	32.7	-11.9		133	69	19
Cost Analysis
Staff	-462	-445	-436		-420	-421	-417
Staff %	14.9%	14.9%	17.3%		14.0%	14.5%	14.9%
Rent	-232	-228	-223		-210	-212	-224
Rent %	7.5%	7.6%	8.9%		7.0%	7.3%	8.0%
Other	-341	-329	-205		-270	-290	-308
Other %	11.0%	11.0%	8.1%		9.0%	10.0%	11.0%
Covenants
FCCR (x) > 1.1-1.4	1.6	1.6	1.4		2.3	1.9	1.5
Min. equity > $400m	584	602	465		598	534	484

Note:

• No JK included in forecasts (additional margin of safety for FY21)
• Everything is pre-AASB16 (as bank covenants are also calculated off pre-AASB16 numbers)
• CODB is derived bottom-up by estimating wages, rent and other costs
• Highlighted fields are “input cells” for my assumptions

Dividend implications:

• Dividend locks up when FCCR < 1.65x, so under the bear case, there won’t be a dividend
• Under the base case, there isn’t sufficient headroom above the $400m min. tangible net worth threshold to pay out a large dividend – so the Board may not elect to pay one either
• Under the bull case, you could expect $50m+ paid in dividends