Hey mate I'm too lazy to split it into 1H/2H, but for the full year I get the following:
Historically I think 1H is much stronger than 2H (incl. Christmas and January clearance) so I don't disagree with your numbers.
$AUD
ASX:MYR
(pre-AASB16)
Income Statement
FY18
FY19
FY20
Bull
Base
Bear
Sales
3101
2992
2519
3000
2900
2800
GP
1184
1162
957.3
1200
1131
1078
GP%
38.2%
38.8%
38.0%
40.0%
39.0%
38.5%
CODB
-1035
-1002
-864
-900
-922
-949
CODB%
33.4%
33.5%
34.3%
30.0%
32.0%
33.5%
EBITDA (underlying)
149
160
93.3
300
209
129
EBITDA %
4.8%
5.3%
3.7%
10.0%
7.2%
4.6%
D&A
-94
-102
-100
-100
-100
-100
EBIT (underlying)
55
58
-6.7
200
109
29
Interest
-9.00
-11.5
-10.6
-10
-10
-10
Tax
8.8
-13.8
5.4
57
30
6
NPAT (underlying)
54.8
32.7
-11.9
133
69
19
Cost Analysis
Staff
-462
-445
-436
-420
-421
-417
Staff %
14.9%
14.9%
17.3%
14.0%
14.5%
14.9%
Rent
-232
-228
-223
-210
-212
-224
Rent %
7.5%
7.6%
8.9%
7.0%
7.3%
8.0%
Other
-341
-329
-205
-270
-290
-308
Other %
11.0%
11.0%
8.1%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Covenants
FCCR (x) > 1.1-1.4
1.6
1.6
1.4
2.3
1.9
1.5
Min. equity > $400m
584
602
465
598
534
484
Note:
- No JK included in forecasts (additional margin of safety for FY21)
- Everything is pre-AASB16 (as bank covenants are also calculated off pre-AASB16 numbers)
- CODB is derived bottom-up by estimating wages, rent and other costs
- Highlighted fields are “input cells” for my assumptions
Dividend implications:
- Dividend locks up when FCCR < 1.65x, so under the bear case, there won’t be a dividend
- Under the base case, there isn’t sufficient headroom above the $400m min. tangible net worth threshold to pay out a large dividend – so the Board may not elect to pay one either
- Under the bull case, you could expect $50m+ paid in dividends
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Last
91.5¢ |
Change
0.030(3.39%) |
Mkt cap ! $766.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
90.0¢ | 91.5¢ | 88.0¢ | $1.461M | 1.617M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 11174 | 90.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
91.5¢ | 11765 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 11174 | 0.905 |
5 | 40010 | 0.900 |
2 | 38036 | 0.890 |
1 | 15 | 0.860 |
3 | 12132 | 0.850 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.915 | 11765 | 2 |
0.920 | 95318 | 9 |
0.925 | 83877 | 7 |
0.930 | 53146 | 4 |
0.935 | 11175 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 14/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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