Hey mate I'm too lazy to split it into 1H/2H, but for the full year I get the following:
Historically I think 1H is much stronger than 2H (incl. Christmas and January clearance) so I don't disagree with your numbers.
$AUD
ASX:MYR
(pre-AASB16)
Income Statement
FY18
FY19
FY20
Bull
Base
Bear
Sales
3101
2992
2519
3000
2900
2800
GP
1184
1162
957.3
1200
1131
1078
GP%
38.2%
38.8%
38.0%
40.0%
39.0%
38.5%
CODB
-1035
-1002
-864
-900
-922
-949
CODB%
33.4%
33.5%
34.3%
30.0%
32.0%
33.5%
EBITDA (underlying)
149
160
93.3
300
209
129
EBITDA %
4.8%
5.3%
3.7%
10.0%
7.2%
4.6%
D&A
-94
-102
-100
-100
-100
-100
EBIT (underlying)
55
58
-6.7
200
109
29
Interest
-9.00
-11.5
-10.6
-10
-10
-10
Tax
8.8
-13.8
5.4
57
30
6
NPAT (underlying)
54.8
32.7
-11.9
133
69
19
Cost Analysis
Staff
-462
-445
-436
-420
-421
-417
Staff %
14.9%
14.9%
17.3%
14.0%
14.5%
14.9%
Rent
-232
-228
-223
-210
-212
-224
Rent %
7.5%
7.6%
8.9%
7.0%
7.3%
8.0%
Other
-341
-329
-205
-270
-290
-308
Other %
11.0%
11.0%
8.1%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Covenants
FCCR (x) > 1.1-1.4
1.6
1.6
1.4
2.3
1.9
1.5
Min. equity > $400m
584
602
465
598
534
484
Note:
- No JK included in forecasts (additional margin of safety for FY21)
- Everything is pre-AASB16 (as bank covenants are also calculated off pre-AASB16 numbers)
- CODB is derived bottom-up by estimating wages, rent and other costs
- Highlighted fields are “input cells” for my assumptions
Dividend implications:
- Dividend locks up when FCCR < 1.65x, so under the bear case, there won’t be a dividend
- Under the base case, there isn’t sufficient headroom above the $400m min. tangible net worth threshold to pay out a large dividend – so the Board may not elect to pay one either
- Under the bull case, you could expect $50m+ paid in dividends
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Hey mate I'm too lazy to split it into 1H/2H, but for the full...
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 16546 | 0.835 |
8 | 67262 | 0.830 |
6 | 18909 | 0.825 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.850 | 77638 | 12 |
0.855 | 7350 | 4 |
0.860 | 54711 | 8 |
0.865 | 63190 | 6 |
0.870 | 165537 | 6 |
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