interesting trades going through, page-5

I always look for the negatives, particularly a stock like this that has a management that has continuously under performed (RC appointment and efforts to date is a positive though but he is only 1 man).
Crux has huge value upside - we know that, commercial extension to the rights are positive for NXS but only if they can fund development. The extension though is negative to many shareholders timeframes because it effectively removes any mooted Shell takeover of NXS for 2 - 3 years.
Longtom is the real negative, IMO it is not an asset, I told the Chairman 1.25 years ago that the board (they were not real "oil men")should sell it - they have spent $400 million on it, stuff up after stuff up, it is probably only worth $300m at best (Nexus is carrying this in debt roughly). The commercial terms with Santos are ridiculous, NXS pays equal payments to Santos for utilising the PB facility - ie a fixed amount each month/ quarter, in summer (slow gas usage months) Longtom is barely cashflow positive but sure in winter it makes cash. The potential negative is the pressure related problems at Longtom announced in a few lines in Septembers quarterly - day traders and "non oil" people just gloss over this statement because they dont understand it- the potential negatives are horrendous for NXS and it is terrible IMO that the market has not been updated in near 3 months to my knowledge. Anyone not appreciating the "potential negative " impact should revisit the Basker Gummy field debacle(ROC). In short NXS have a committment to supply 350PJ from Longtom over 10 years - but now maybe the gas doesnt exist????, or a mid case view is that $30m may be needed to bring on another well shortly (NXS doesnt have the money)to provide sufficient feed with potential follow up wells not provided for.
Sure if everthing goes well for NXS then the likes of Southern Cross Equities are correct - NXS is undervalued but nothing much has gone right for NXS the past 2 years.
Lost a small fortune on this one over 2 years - fell in love with it and as an "oil man" I knew how undervalued it was - I am not so sure now but RC is the right man.
Shell have made a great deal - $30m + 3.5% royalty + if NXS cant fund Crux or is a GFC2, Shell pick it up for nothing having already demonstrated to Canberra their conscientous support of a small Aussie oil company by extending commercial terms.
Good luck to holders - I do hope everything does go well for NXS