IFL insignia financial ltd

4.26%

$3.67

I think it is best to just forget what others are doing, and...

First 10 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
CaptainBarnacles

11,601 Posts.

808

02/12/18

11:26

Post #: 36719931
Share

Originally posted by madamswer ↑

While I am sure that the company's management have contingency plans in place to whatever the final recommendations of the Royal Commission on IOOF's business will be, the ultimate outworking on the company's earnings can't be known.

But what is readily observable is the following:

A little over 10% of the company's issued capital is currently loaned out for the purposes of short-selling.
As such, there some 35m shares have been borrowed and shorted.

For context, average daily trade in IFL over the past 12 months has averaged around 1.4m shares per day.

Should those who have sold short at some stage seek to neutralise their positions, for whatever reason, even a very active buying limit of 40% [*] of Average Daily Volume would require in excess of 60 trading days to neutralise the net short position, so the better part of 3 months.

Moreover, the next two months are characterised by significantly lower seasonal volumes, with obvious implications.

Maybe those who are short are of the view that a capital raising by the company will provide the liquidity event for them to close out their stock loan liabilities. But I think the chances of that happening are close to zero.

So, it's going to be an interesting movie to watch over the next three to five months around the Royal Commission's findings.

[*] And participating in 40% of the trade day-in, day-out for 60 successive days would be no mean feat and, for practical purposes, would be very difficult to achieve without a meaningful impact on the share price. For context, 10% to 20% of ADV is what institutional brokers are typically mandated to do by their institutional clients when it comes to on-market buying or selling, depending on the stock in question.

Expand

I think it is best to just forget what others are doing, and stick to your analysis and conclusions. I remember JBH had a huge number of shorts in Jun 2012 - around 25%, and the SP did have a huge turnaround around from that point, but at the end of December the shorts were still at 21%. However at the end of 2013 it was 7% short. That is a sample size of 1 to consider.

IFL Price at posting: $6.90 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

ASX Market Close: Index creeps lower as half-year mark approaches | June 26

'Not possible' to port renewable gas: ACCC takes AGN to court

BPH

Australia’s gas crisis is here – and dying coal plants aren’t helping

OCC

Orthocell sees 4% jump as Remplir used in first US surgery. But is that low?

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 015 – Yeah, we're thinking the IPO market is back

PAR

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals makes key acquisition moving into FY26

BOE

Boss extends June win streak with boosted Alta Mesa extraction rates

ASX Market Open: IPO hype, Wall Street ATHs push Aussies into green hope | June 27

SRL

Sunrise pops on top scandium hits NSW explorer will now use for 'multi-decade' plan

NATO’s 5% target: Why Almonty Industries’ mega mine and NASDAQ listing are a perfect fit for investors

First 10 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last $3.67		Change 0.150(4.26%)		Mkt cap ! $2.461B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.55	$3.73	$3.54	$7.648M	2.077M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	8965	$3.67

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$3.72	693	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	8965	3.670
1	4097	3.660
2	4370	3.650
2	1900	3.600
2	25586	3.580

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.720	693	2
3.730	34805	8
3.740	7097	2
3.750	16397	4
3.760	12243	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

IFL (ASX) Chart

I think it is best to just forget what others are doing, and...

ASX Market Close: Index creeps lower as half-year mark approaches | June 26

'Not possible' to port renewable gas: ACCC takes AGN to court

Australia’s gas crisis is here – and dying coal plants aren’t helping

Orthocell sees 4% jump as Remplir used in first US surgery. But is that low?

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 015 – Yeah, we're thinking the IPO market is back

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals makes key acquisition moving into FY26

Boss extends June win streak with boosted Alta Mesa extraction rates

ASX Market Open: IPO hype, Wall Street ATHs push Aussies into green hope | June 27

Sunrise pops on top scandium hits NSW explorer will now use for 'multi-decade' plan

NATO’s 5% target: Why Almonty Industries’ mega mine and NASDAQ listing are a perfect fit for investors

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

I think it is best to just forget what others are doing, and...

Top Stories

ASX Market Close: Index creeps lower as half-year mark approaches | June 26

'Not possible' to port renewable gas: ACCC takes AGN to court

Australia’s gas crisis is here – and dying coal plants aren’t helping

Orthocell sees 4% jump as Remplir used in first US surgery. But is that low?

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 015 – Yeah, we're thinking the IPO market is back

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals makes key acquisition moving into FY26

Boss extends June win streak with boosted Alta Mesa extraction rates

ASX Market Open: IPO hype, Wall Street ATHs push Aussies into green hope | June 27

Sunrise pops on top scandium hits NSW explorer will now use for 'multi-decade' plan

NATO’s 5% target: Why Almonty Industries’ mega mine and NASDAQ listing are a perfect fit for investors

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News