interesting, page-20

Nathanblack,

Thanks for your views. You have been through many more of these than I have.

Assuming Coastal in it for at least 100% return ie $20+, within a modest time frame, the question becomes how can they best achieve this in an environment where PPX still delivering losses with no plan/ability(?) in place to address?

Further, PPX is capital constrained with a dysfunctional balance sheet due to the PXU.

If however, the $285 mill of PXU is removed from the balance sheet then PPX would get a SP boost and may give them the 100% plus.

Coastal would need to sell any purchased PPX or converted PXU/PPX at ~ 10c to achieve their 100% + return. But PPX has been > 10c in the pat few years.

The significant issue of liquidity however remains.

There may be some smart stuff with rights /oppies issues etc but PPX still need to figure out how to get the PXU off the balance sheet.

Almost ruling out Coastal achieving their returns via PPX but not ruling out them buying up some PPX along the way for the reasons you outlined.


Alternatively, PXU is currently covered by assets to > $20 /PXU. Note: If I recall correctly PIGS derived $70+ a year or so ago?

So perhaps their approach may be to realise this residual value? If so, the question becomes how?

Perhaps via control of the board either directly of indirectly. Directly would take a bit of work to gain alliances plus investment in PPX directly and/or via conversion required. Indirectly via whatever levers/mechanisms they may potentially bring in to play recognising if PXU Realisation was a potential reality then PPX would be at $0 and the directors out of a job.

In this regard, perhaps their aim may be a Responsible Entity Removal Event where pursuant to cl 7.4 of the SPS Terms, the Issuer may realise the PXU, with Coastal's aim to have the Issuer realise PXU in the best interest of PXU holders.

All above is speculation, with no clear path ahead.

Will be interesting but, need to do up the seatbelts.