Your praise for Eddie's post yet again shows how out of touch...

AL told us in Q3 CC that they had the lowest cost except for Northern Rare Earths. NRE is more than 50% of China's NdPr Production. Could you please defend your statement Finally, their production is low cost even compared to most Chinese producers.

They are also in the process of major expansion; both in NdPr volume Yes AL told us this in Q2 and SAR CCs and many times before that. She has been telling us since, a couple of years after she took office. how much she would increase production. Now she is using prices to say she is deliberately cutting back. Is it prices or does she now know that the promises that she made just a few months ago will not be met? Does cutting back to where it makes profits very small make sense? Look at chart at end and see what actual out put has been. Take a look at what KAL was promised to deliver in 2019 and look at what they may deliver now if they ever get it fully running. Then explain to me why my attitude of I have to see it to believe it is wrong. Look at the 4 Q running average and tell me how after 14 years they still have not run at the original nameplate for NdPrO.


I agree with you statement In this context, Lynas with a near monopoly on ex-China RE, has huge strategic significance. What is this monopoly worth? when Lynas has less than 10% of WWP and their market share is decreasing. Many on this board like to say this fact but few stop to realy think if it means much.
Japan is very Loyal to Lynas but Lynas supplies less than half their Nd and NdPrO, All of their HRE if something happened and Japan had to decide China or Lynas what do you think their decision would be. Remember Lynas would mean defaulting on delivery to many companies.

"To quote a previous voluminous poster: The PE of S&P 500 is about 28 the mean is a 16."
That would give a fair value of about A$13-23 per share." I said this and will stand behind it. what you fail to understand is SP = EPS X PE. If your EPS is nearly 8X too high, which your is, Then your stock price will be high by same amount. We all make mistakes. When i am done regardless if I like or hate the number i come up with I try to do a sanity check against hard data that is not mine. For this all you had to do is check the EPS in any SAR or AR to know your number was way off. It is clear now that you do not do any type of checking when you love the number and you can bash someone you do not like with it. I Used 28 and 16 in a previous post like you said. It is clear from how you quoted me that you did not get what I said. To clarify the PE at time of post was 28 raised by falling profits combined with a rise in SPs. The long term Mean was 16. cannot rember right now what the period was but my guess is about 15 ~ 25 years. checking data is very easy Lynas puts most of the critical data in Qs, SARs and ARs on page 1. You do not need to dig very deep. EPS is always last line in the P&L statement.

I am not a fan of China in fact their production uses coal fired electric. slave labor and pollutes horribly is a major problem for me. i would never invest in a company like NRE. To invest in Lynas i have to take a careful look at the position Lynas is realy in and that includes an honest appraisal of China no matter how they are making their product, or bad behavior by their government. It is funny how when i say what the threat from China is to Lynas how many quickly label me a Chinese sympathizer rather than say what I have wrong.

This is total BS. Lynas's TMM EPS is AUD 0.22 today. The average of 14 analysis is $0,134 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LYC.AX/analysis/ Mine estimate is AUD 0.11. Before you label me as a down ramper and discount my number remember Lynas has underperformed my predictions on P&L for almost a year. You said Let's call it A$0.8 profit per share after taxes and amortisation. You cannot justify this number any way against Lynas's published numbers. It is at least 6 X to high today, more likely 8X after AR is release
. Look up profits in 2023 and 2024 SARs and 2023 AR!

Your praise for Eddie's post yet again shows how out of touch you are with Lynas's published numbers. i think you just listen to AL in CC and never study maybe even look at the published data. I assure you if he was correct I would be all in on Lynas. Yet you only have a sentiment of hold.

2022 AR was the best they ever did. https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02558707.pdf Page 1 shows a profit of AUD 540M PG 57 shows EPS of $0.60 yet you cheer Eddie B when he says at current production and prices he estimates $0.80 right now. IF people cannot see how little you and Eddie realy know from this I am not sure how to show it.