There one here with a great talent for blatantly dishonest distortion of what I said in posts just above. So blow out more smoke. More smoke but do not argue With anything I say. All of what I say reference Lynas's data So here is my challenge to you if you think you are correct either show numbers behind your AUD 0.8 EPS. You can not do it because Lynas's cost higher to day than what you used. So pls stop blowing smoke and show all your math and give dates for when your numbers occur. I will point out all your Errors. You should look at Revenue numbers back to when AL became CEO and see if what you are saying makes sense. There are currently 935M shares https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=lyc 0.80 times 935M = 748M in profit. it is one thing to make a mistake but to go on arguing when you are given company data that shows just how bad it was is just being a total fool. Here is what you said which i understood but I figure any idiot when shown what Lynas traditionally made would go back and check their error. Instead it was easier to assume I did not understand you.
I most certainly did. So lets see how your numbers add up
You talk like 10 KT of NdPr is a sure thing and it may happen some day. You never say when, which is so typical no mater what happens in future you will just say wait another year. My guess is it is a few years from now what is yours ? 2024 production through Q3 was 4.15 KT NdPr. Based on AL Q3 CC I think it is safe to add 1750 KT for Q4 to this for a total of 6.8 KT of NdPr next is your USD price of $90/ KG Todays price is USD $45 / KG NV Because of book to bill delay i believe we know what prices are for FY 2024 To give you a small advantage I will round up to US$50 KG= AU $76 for revenue not some magical number you dream of happening years from now.
I will use 7 KTPA just to give you a little benefit. 7KT tons times AU$76 M is revenue of AUD 532 M. . Now EPS stands for Earnings PS not Revenue PS So lets look at 2024 SAR
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02776752.pdf PG 1 Cost of sales was 159M. Now i have a problem you talked about just NdPr. in fact in Q2 total REO was about 160 % of NdPr Q3 about 200% to keep it simple I am going to put all cost on NdPr Assuming % of NdPr does not change it comes out close to the same. Disagree do it and show me. so their cost of production per ton of NdPR is $159M Divide by ( Q1 1,526 &Q2 901=2,42M ton) now total cost of production for H1 is 159 / 2.42 KT = AUD 66M / KT So for FY 2024 Revenue $76M X 7KT = $ $532M. Now production expense will be AUD 66M X 7 KT. = 462 M subtract production expenses = 70M of profit. there are also expenses not related to Production in H1 2024 they were about 45 M so for year say 90 M so total profit will be about
20M and i have said less than 100 M since SAR.
I am sure the accountants will keep them out of the red but No way Can i see even EPS being AUD 0.15 .
i do not want to ignore your AUD NdPr price of AUD $136 / ton and volume of 10 KT. I am going to do this with minimal explanation you can refer to above if you become confused. Revenue, AU $136 X 10 KT is AUD 1.36 B. production expense 10 KT X $66M = 660 M So revenue -$ 660 m in production expenses - $90 M admin expenses = AUD 610M Divide 935M shares is AUD 0.65 which is lower than your 0.8. So at some imaginary date in the future EPS may be 0.65. But before then stock should go down.
Now we both could make detailed arguments of what is wrong with this. but it is so far in future who realy knows
- you could very accurately say higher volumes decreases cost which is true if Labor, Power, Reagents, and depreciation do not change. I can tell you Depreciation and Labor are going up.
- I could accurately say the opposite. BYut who knows. you do not give dates so it would be hard to argue with you.
Take a look at the NdPr thread of most of 2022 when prices were soaring Page 10 ~ 20 is a good place to look. Look at predictions for NdPr price many were at 2000 RMB WV even one for 5000 RMB. Today we are under 400RMB and that is why I will not invest on future predictions. i only skimmed but it was interesting what many said
i looked at a few of your posts from 2022 I will not pick on you by posting the numbers but you should think about you past accuracy on future NdPr prices before committing to long term prices now. Just for record back then I was predicting a bottom of 750 RMB so I was in error as well.
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