Salty 74 Nice jump in 2025. Do they say why? That is key on whether or not to believe it. it cannot be volume alone since increases expenses at Lynas probably will only continue to go up, keeping profit per KT low at today's REE Prices, increased volume will be of little help. Even if Texas comes online soon which is unlikely since groundbreaking slipped again, it is now not till summer. Table is exciting but far more important is how they reached the decision. Remember Goldman is an investment bank and only very positive analyst brings in more money. Like many other Investment banks. It is suspicious when they show short term down then sudden rises. Which gives them time to lower estimate, so they are not wrong when reality hits. UBS is one of the big offenders doing this. really high estimates for a year or two out then drop it several times a year as date approaches so they are right on when number comes out. Just for record GS says that earnings for this year will be 12 cents Even at a PE of 30 that is still a share price AU $3.60. I have never seen a company with 2 years of declining earnings support a PE of 20 never mind 30 Size of earnings is not always important. A company with rising earnings will support a High PE but seldom one with a two year record of declining. Earnings 2022 $541M, 2023 $315M change - 42%, 2022 $105M Change - 67%. Can anybody tell me why anyone would buy a stock with this earnings record at a PE 20?
Just for record my earnings estimate for last year and H1 was high compared to actual. I am higher than Goldman at just under 140M. ( will probably need a readjust after Q3 comes out and a smaller one after Q4.) Yet because people do not like what I say They label me a down ramper ignoring track record. I was wrong with Less than $5.50 estimate 2 weeks after SAR. I am still staying with less than $5.00 two weeks after AR. Sometimes people are just slow to understand. If Goldman is correct that is a PE of $5.00 / $0.12 = 42 and I do not see how that could possibly happen. So probably lower than $5.00 but right now I will stay with $5.00 till I see Q3 and Q4.
I do not follow ARU so I do not know if it is crazy. i do know from experience that most companies do not talk about financing until the ink is dry for many reasons. It may be that they have high confidence but do not want to sign deal. Or maybe the money is conditional on certain things happening first. Not saying you are wrong but things may be happening that we do not know about.
LYC Price at posting:
$5.73 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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