Thanks Chemist . Good analysis and facts.It will take few years...

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10/08/24

16:07

Post #: 75153381
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Originally posted by Chemist1959: ↑

Amanda has done a masterful job keeping the ship afloat. Japan has been a steadfast customer and their dedicated sogo shosha Sojitz has kept Amanda from needing to look to the CCP for income.

That said, Lynas was in dire straits when cheap Chinese DyTb dried up and the CCP got tired of selling their rare earths at dirt cheap prices, esp the DyTb. "Rare earths are to China what oil is to the Middle East." The CCP increasingly stepped in to take control. This geopolitical shift made all industrial scale ex-China downstream smelting alloying and magnet-making uneconomical; the Chinese only did it by developing their domestic downstream skills over decades. No more cheap Chinese labor raping their homeland for manufacturers in the West. The West must find its own resources if they wish to compete; dig their own mines in their own lands, retool and restart the multiple skilled industries that are required take ore to magnets at an industrially meaningful scale. No ex-China CEO was willing or able to do so whilst they would still be required to obtain uber-critical DyTb from the increasingly controlled CPP REE marketplace.

Now Lynas is providing definitive timeline to DyTb. They will totally break from Chinese REE market at that time. It's a gamechanger move.

Amanda refused to look to China even when they were the only customers. So I believe she will continue to do so. And now that she is signalling DyTb by EOY 2025 from the LAMP, there is far less reason to have to do so. Without DyTb, Lynas would eventually be selling NdPr to Chinese magnetmakers. And they would be willing to pay because they can make downstream $billions from REE $millions. Will ROW ever be willing or able to pay more than the Chinese? That's the question that we can look forward to seeing answered if and when ROW downstream gets off the mat.

The Chinese are so far ahead that it will take a miracle for the West to reclaim a competitive position.

Bottom Line: The clock starts when Lynas puts DyTb on the market.

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Thanks Chemist . Good analysis and facts.
It will take few years to catch up with China, but I think the West finally woke up and getting serious about sourcing non- Chinese raw materials

looking forward for market to value LYC at $9 - $11 / share again, and much, much higher if there is any political instability.

LYC Price at posting: $6.06 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Thanks Chemist . Good analysis and facts.It will take few years...

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Thanks Chemist . Good analysis and facts.It will take few years...

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