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Where did you get 8% chance of a "false positive" when there are...

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IndexInvestor

8,288 Posts.

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27/02/24

08:34

Post #: 72610684
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Originally posted by vintage: ↑

What really is the point of your negative campaign? To teach people how to suck eggs? To hold the SP down? To be contrary for the sake of it?

People here aren't stupid. They know the risks of backing drug trials. They know that they often do not reach their endpoints. They know that there are sometimes false positives from interim readouts.

But they also know that a lot of de-risking has occurred here and that the average success rate of Phase 3 trials is around 60% and that a large pharma (with all its PhD scientists) has voted with its feet. They also know that false positive readouts are very unlikely - with only an 8% chance when the readouts are confined to 2, as is the case here.

They also know that the risk/reward ratio here is very compelling. And reading between the lines, I suspect you do as well.

Why don't you just accept that some people are 'glass half full' types and others (like you) are 'glass half empty'! Neither approach is right or wrong. They are just orientations. Like so many other things in life.

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Where did you get 8% chance of a "false positive" when there are two endpoints?

(I'm putting "false positive" in quotes because that term is normally restricted to trials of diagnostics.)

DXB Price at posting: 22.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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