2021 underlying NPAT was $1620 million based on US60/boe average realised price.
2022: assume average realised price of $110. NPAT sensitivity of $18MM per $1 change in Brent
2022 estimate NPAT of $1620 + (50 x 18) = $2,520 million.
Use 80% payout ratio for dividend = $2016 million. Shares oustanding approx. 975 million. So DPS = US 2.06 (for full year dividend).
Assume 40% of full year is paid as interim and 60% for final.
Interim dividend = US 82 cents.
Final dividend = US 124 cents
Total 2022 = US 206 cents
Obviously BHPP cashflow will be included in 2022 so NPAT will roughly double but so will shares outstanding so net per share dividend won't change.
Can you share your calcs for US$ 2.30 interim?
Interim Dividend 2022, page-49
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