Interim / half year results thread, page-6

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rcman

35,299 Posts.

1599

21/02/17

17:31

Post #: 22787876
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Originally posted by Ya ↑

AGO's HY Revenue should b up compared to 1H'16, as they've shipped more ore compared to that period.

Overall the variance should get interesting.

What the mkt would like to see is any improvement in Gross Margin, EBITDA & NPAT and change in Net Tangible asset besides the net debt situation & Capital commitment and turnaround for CD.

So for now the numbers to beat from 1H-2016 are as under :

Shipment: 6.9 MT
Av PIO: A$59.07/t
FullCosts: A$55.75/t
Rev: A$372 mil
Margin: A$30 mil
Ebitda: A$20.5 mil
Statutory Loss after Tax -114 mil (due to impairments & writedowns)
NTA: 7 cents

From AGO's Dec 2016 qtrly report:

- Total shipments for Sept & Dec qtr were 4 + 4.1 MT = 8.1 MT, (better then 6.9 MT)
- Avg PIO for the two qtr's: A$54/t & A$66/t,
- Full Costs per qtr: A$50/t & A$55/t

So the avg PIO & F/C for 6 mnths should b A$60/t & A$53/ton, approximately.

Apply the avg PIO to the 8.1 MT shipped, u get the apprx Revenue estimate north of A$400 mil, which is more then $372 mil for 1H 2016. That should be the headine, in my view.

With 9 bil shares on issue wonder when the mkt will see a 1 billion share volume churn.

I think WAMCO were still around holding 1.1264 bil shares, whilst the others like Bain, Marathon, BGC & Glencore/Maru have been dumping steadily.

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The 6 months platts is US$63.94

AGO Price at posting: 4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Interim / half year results thread, page-6

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