intersting 'chat'

Today I had the pleasure of meeting, amongst others, a man from the Chinese City of Fire today..

Dont know if it will interest anyone.. but hey I am bored..

Outside of HC the company I work for has strong relations with China and I think Australian investors potentially miss some intricacies..

The story of Nanking is an interesting and tortuous one. Potentially it will impact on holders of Arafura over the time ahead imho.. People should Google it and do some homework...

Suffice to say that REE's offer an opportunity to put a bit of stress back..

Now from my perspective the Chinese are generally a friendly and honourable group with a long term vision... vision gives us the opportunity to be friendly and honourable as it means we can wear the ups and downs coz we have things in perspective.. we are in for the big game.. it does not mean we are a push over, dont understand or are stupid..

Whilst I dont speak Mandarin, I like to think I can read people pretty well irrespective of nationality or culture and so the following is on this basis.. it is my interpretation or reading as such..

I felt this man was committed to Arafura for the long term, strategic... yes, smart.. yes, tough.. yes certainly no push over.. but legit and fair dinkum.. and has a vision past the fence post.. and something to bring in return..

Now I can go thru the cost efficiencies, improved recoveries etc.. but we have people on here who are smarter than me and know this stuff backwards... suffice to say that it is flying imho as a lay person..

When I meet these sort of folks I like to have a peek around.. what was interesting from my view is that based on all the numbers ARU is valued around 30% higher than last year based on extra shares being approved... LYC is near on double the market cap of last year based on extra shares should they be approved... but hold on.. they turned the lights off... Am I losing it or missing something? We turn the power off and market cap doubles.. c'mon..

We are not talking a few bucks here... but hundreds of millions..

I would much rather hold ARU than any other REE company in OZ... Whew.. got it out..
Whilst that may be a bit confronting for many, let me elaborate a bit..
IMHO ARU has a dream deposit and LYC has a pretty good one too.. the rest dont excite me too much but that could be me..
I feel that should ARU holders approve ECE investment we will roll on with a valuable partner and a terrific project.. and that would be great.. but not where I expect it stops.. however I also feel if LYC fall over at the hurdle they are facing it will be game on..

Let me put it this way; when it is all said and done we are talking about 2 companies.. one has a paddock with a few holes in it.. the other has a paddock with a bigger hole and also a bit of concrete spattered here and there around the globe... this is not real exciting stuff coz we are not in the concrete growing business... but if you cut the trash this is our world imho.. one has a done deal (assuming holders vote in accord) and the other has a couple of potential issues in relation to Aus V China politics, a recalcitrant FIRB (are they antagonistic or are they upset for a reason?) and a few bond holders who probably are not so "friendly and honourable" any more... possibly a few 'customers' who are a bit stressed and may need to start building bridges...
Certainly holders who are not on top of things would not be happy either.. imagine finding out via papers that FIRB is delaying things.. shareholders instead get an 'Investor Presentation'... still no official news... wow.. that is respectful or what?... like I said all IMHO and my reading of the world thru glazed eyes..

I get the distinct feeling that should FIRB approval not occur then we will see a paradigm shift.. (big word like Vegemite)... and that at 30c or so LYC could be on the agenda.. These folks are in this to make a tonne of $$ and build reputations but potentially more importantly to remember history.. (did you do your Google).. and show what vision really is.. from my perspective ARU wont cough up millions for a paddock or two with concrete growing in it unless there is real carnage.. even if money pours in.. fundamentals of business apply..
But the scenario seems to be more real every day.. imho

But all in all, I reckon we are on the right track.
-- Terrific paddock that we need to put a hole in..
-- Good partners
-- FIRB Approval
-- Committed share holders who do have a vision (else why buy?)
-- Cash
-- More projects..

Of course, Shareholders could knock it back and we can all top up at 30c too.... lol