I would not be surprised if a big one has gone directly to the Gambia and offered them hard cash in order to take over the licences.
It is about the same thing that was happening in Senegal with APCL. TOTAL went directly to the government and used all their powers to get the license.
Did you guys know that there is heavy linking on LinkedIn between TOTAL and APCL after that takeover? Why would APCL help TOTAL after they took over the license?
My speculation on the ROP license is that TOTAL will give APCL a minor share with something carried to get the issue out of hand.
This method could be the same that is being tried in the Gambia. First get the license directly from the government, then fix the issue with the owner of the license, knowing that you have the better cards.
I guess this is because APCL knew that all the big ones are after a share of this acreage and set their goals so high that the majors are now trying other ways to get in, which might be cheaper and give them a far higher percentage, than setting themselves up in a bidding war where they will have to spend shitloads to get half of the acreage! Who would you rather negotiate with? A "corrupt" ministry which does not have a clue about the vale or a company which knows how fortunate they are and what they are owning and its real value?
I am not surprised by how this is playing out at the moment...
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