interview with dines , page-9

Thanks Dhuy, Dines definitely has a solid view of the world - no question about most of his assumptions being fairly obvious, it is just a question of when. Maybe the thing he is wrong about was the assertion that nobody missed the oil signal from the Saudi's. I think a few people have noticed it, hence the improvements in U stocks without much local news in the way of announcements or any change much in the spot price. I have been following the oil reserve question for many years, noting that the Saudis always extend their reserve estimate by pretty much whatever we have used since the last time they gave an estimate. The world has been suspicious for some time that their estimates have been inflated by the fact that they think the whole of the country has oil beneath, when it may not, and probably does not, have. I noticed that both Cheney and Bush asked the Saudis, personally, in quick succession, to lift production. This says that the situation is more serious than the speculators would have us believe. If the Saudis cannot, rather than will not, lift production, then clearly this is a major, major signal to the world economy with massive consequences(as Dines says). The Russians are about to be, if they aren't already, the biggest producers of oil on the planet, and they sure as eggs, aint going to give it away - and the Americans aren't going to be able to invade them to get it. Having spent some time in Russia recently, I can tell you that it is an interesting and generally pleasant place (bit dull but with plenty of money about)but not that stable country and it certainly doesn't operate like a charity. The sooner Bush (and his successor) realises that they will wreck their economy and the world environment if they don't stop using oil, the better. We all know the day is coming - the question is only how much pain will be associated with the huge changes that will come (as Dines says). Positioning to benefit is the obvious priority - roll on PEN. Looks to me like another good week ahead, building into a slow and steady improvement only a long period - just the way it should be.