Cheers for linking to this, good find.For me, the 'fact of'...

Cheers for linking to this, good find.

For me, the 'fact of' Tsingshan's large short against nickel is the most interesting thing discussed above. Tsingshan knows more about global nickel production then almost anybody else, and had the confidence to bet billions of dollars on the price of class 1/LME nickel coming down in the face of increasing demand from EV manufacturers. Justin agreed with the logic of the trade in principle but not in timing; right idea but a "little early", as he put it. Both are really confident that the ramp up in laterite > matte > sulphate refining in Indonesia will be a gamechanger for class 1 nickel supply; "As more of those [HPAL] plants come online, then you won’t see the sort of shortages that people are predicting for class one nickel and you’ll start to see a steady supply of consistent [battery grade nickel]". This runs counter to the predictions that many nickel/EV commentators are making at the moment, who put a huge premium on sulphide deposits feeding the class 1 market preferentially on account of their lower carbon footprint, and resultingly see years of acute supply deficits/price support.