Margin estimates this inflated have no place outside of M&A...

Margin estimates this inflated have no place outside of M&A advisory slide decks

NPI reference price is Shanghai not LME. They can diverge quite a bit. In the interview you posted in chunks above, Justin says NIC's average NPI sales price at the moment is about 21k/tonne, which is the highest price NIC has ever received (yay!).

Production costs for March haven't been announced to market yet, but... NIC was producing at a little over 10k/tonne in Sep 21 quarter and 12k/tonne in Dec 21 quarter. Good chance that costs will have continued to creep up in Q1 2022. This will be off the back of rising coal prices and also to a smaller degree from increased costs of ore as an input. The Indonesian government sets a monthly reference price for nickel ore based on a percentage of the LME price, so that will be one to watch going forward - if LME pricing (which determines what NIC buys ore at) runs well in front of Shanghai pricing (what NIC sells NPI at) it will put the hurt on NIC's bottom line as long as they remain a majority NPI producer. Not a biggie at the moment because NIC is mining 75% of the ore it uses, but will be more influential as production ramps up for Angel and Oracle and NIC moves to purchasing a majority of its ore input, especially if the LME/Shanghai NPI gap widens.

In case curious this is how the Indonesian Nickel ore prices have tracked for the last 6 months (per WMT, 1.8% Ni 30% moisture):

Oct 21: $46.68
Nov 21: $45.37
Dec 21: $47.47
Jan 22: $48.33
Feb 22: $50.55
Mar 22: $56.35

Projections for $800 mil EBITDA from annualised production starting FY 2023 are on a consolidated basis at a margin of 6k/tonne. EBITDA attributable to NIC in that scenario (they don't own 100% of any of their nickel projects) is a good chunk less at $600 mil. (https://nickelmines.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Presentation-to-Ord-Minnett.pdf).