Hi Johny
I am sorry you find my points unfair. I am not trying to sledge, but provide a sensible and cautious counter to those with rose-tinted bull-shaped glasses. Despite the already huge fall, it is my opinion this could go much lower still (I said that yesterday at 14c and here we are another 30% down, sadly). A few points:
- First CAP discovery was actually early 2009, if I recall correctly. Refer to the ASX quarterly activities report ending 31 Mar 2009 (dated 22 Apr 2009). It then earned its own release on 25 May 2009 'Carpentaria outlines significant magnetite iron prospect 60 km SW of Broken Hill'. As you note it then took another eight years (!) to get to PFS stage. It's then been another five years (!) and counting, to get to DFS stage - which is now delayed/on ice.
- Now look at MGT. They first released their PFS in January 2013 as Royal Resources. Fast forward eight years later (!) and under the name Magnetite Mines it was the hottest thing in the retail market, in the lead up to... their PFS being released (again).
- Now look at FMG's Iron Bridge. Approval was announced on 2 April 2019. They've had at least three timeline and cost blowouts there, it cost three top executives their jobs and now isn't slated for production until March 2023 and probably won't be running at full capacity until June 2024.
Without getting stuck in the weeds, it's not hard to say that magnetite isn't exactly a blessed commodity. And yes I fully acknowledge a lot of stocks are feeling the pain right now - the list of casualties from the current macro/financial environment impacting, delaying or downsizing projects keeps getting longer: ADN, AHQ, CYM, SBM are recent examples. Now add HIO to that list. So it's not an individual sledge at HIO. But people as recently as today were calling this thing a 'screaming buy' at 14c. Sorry - it isn't. As holders may recall, I have followed this company since the LDA financing deal (check my posting history on HIO). Something didn't stack up then. You don't get that sort of deathbed financing deal done if you have prospects as bright as what HotCopper was shouting about.
FWIW on Green Steel, I think it's one of those 'narrative' thematics that retail investors love, but the numbers don't bear it out at this stage. In practice, it will take a very long time to get there, will be capital intensive, and will be heavily reliant on government subsidies to make it commercially/economically viable.
Cheers and all the best from here.
(20min delay)