Let's do a back of the envelop calculation using a simplified dividend discount method
consensus forecast growth = 16%
analysts tend to be a bit over optimistic so lets discount the growth forcast by 25%
instead of 16% lets make it 12%
expected rate of return = 15%
dividend doesn't increase = $1.21
1.21/ (.15 - .12) = 1.21/.03 = $40.33 (similar to clime's intrinsic value
lets assume the dividend increases to $1.31 and growth goes to 10%
$1.21 / (.15 - .10) = 1.21/ .05 = $24.20
zero growth
earnings = $2.58
divi = $0.00
$2.58/.15 = $17.20
so zero growth $17.20
10% growth $24.20
12% growth $40.33
of course you could be assuming that the company will not make a profit
If so the price would go below $17
But I can't imagine that happening at this stage
Has BHP ever not made a profit?
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- intrinsic value ... $39
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$38.73

intrinsic value ... $39 , page-4
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Last
$38.73 |
Change
-0.540(1.38%) |
Mkt cap ! $196.5B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$38.60 | $38.99 | $38.45 | $280.8M | 7.283M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2500 | $38.70 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$38.74 | 200 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 77 | 38.690 |
2 | 515 | 38.680 |
3 | 2827 | 38.660 |
2 | 1815 | 38.630 |
3 | 2015 | 38.620 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.750 | 14498 | 5 |
38.760 | 647 | 1 |
38.790 | 104 | 1 |
38.800 | 368 | 5 |
38.810 | 880 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.11pm 04/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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