Let's do a back of the envelop calculation using a simplified dividend discount method
consensus forecast growth = 16%
analysts tend to be a bit over optimistic so lets discount the growth forcast by 25%
instead of 16% lets make it 12%
expected rate of return = 15%
dividend doesn't increase = $1.21
1.21/ (.15 - .12) = 1.21/.03 = $40.33 (similar to clime's intrinsic value
lets assume the dividend increases to $1.31 and growth goes to 10%
$1.21 / (.15 - .10) = 1.21/ .05 = $24.20
zero growth
earnings = $2.58
divi = $0.00
$2.58/.15 = $17.20
so zero growth $17.20
10% growth $24.20
12% growth $40.33
of course you could be assuming that the company will not make a profit
If so the price would go below $17
But I can't imagine that happening at this stage
Has BHP ever not made a profit?
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intrinsic value ... $39 , page-4
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$40.91 |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $209.2B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$41.02 | $41.15 | $40.91 | $57.91M | 1.412M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 210 | $40.91 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$40.92 | 1300 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 1695 | 40.960 |
20 | 7772 | 40.950 |
8 | 4555 | 40.940 |
10 | 4715 | 40.930 |
9 | 3629 | 40.920 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
40.980 | 2818 | 16 |
40.990 | 2525 | 9 |
41.000 | 2036 | 6 |
41.010 | 2372 | 7 |
41.020 | 2240 | 5 |
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