I am struggling to understand the Intrinsic Values placed on stocks by many broking houses. One way of calculating Intrinsic value and one that makes sense to me is, Intrinsic value of a stock equals the net book value of the firm plus the expected present value of future earnings. Ie future earnings are discounted back based upon a required rate of return
Year 1 IV = BV + (BV*ROE)/(1+RRR) Where BV = Book value ROE = return on equity RRR = required rate of return
For future years you then do the same calculation using the new intrinsic value. I have assumed that any Dividends are reinvested in this case, to keep things simple. If they are not then you need to subtract the dividends from the earnings (BV*ROE)
As an example if I use CCL BV = $2.72, ROE =26.9% and RRR = 6%
The intrinsic value calculations then become Year 1 = 3.41 Year 2 = 4.28 Year 3 = 5.36 Year 4 = 6.72 Year 5 = 8.43
I can do these calculations simply using the available data, yet in most instances they do not align with consensus valuations provided by broking houses and are much less, for CCL the broking houses have a consensus target of $11.87. Another example, CCP has a consensus target of $9.90, yet the intrinsic value calculations give Year 1 = 3.70 Year 2 = 4.50 Year 3 = 5.47 Year 4 = 6.65 Year 5 = 8.08
I’d love to know your thoughts on Intrinsic Valuation and how it is calculated. How do others calculate it and why are these figures so far below those of broking houses..
