I forget exactly how I originally came up with $250 back when MUS first moved to 200,000 carat auction.
So I'm pretty sure this one is fairly similar.
I also have taken a far more difficult, time consuming and complicated path to my figure then
@wombat777 and maybe less complicated then
@bdell . Lol.
THE BEST AND WORST COMBINED.
I am using the newly introduced 40% HQ & 60% LQ.
Also will be using historical data from GEM. (So @W3 should like this also. A friendly dig. Lal)
High Quality Carats offered at auction 40% of 200,000 = 80,000 Cts
Low Quality Carats offered at auction 60% of 200,000 = 120,000 Cts
BEST of the BEST;
Take the 2 High Quality ONLY auctions, Dec 2014 & June 2015.
Average % Carats sold 85 + 61= 146, 146÷2 = 73% × 80,000 Cts = 58,400 Cts HQ sold by Mustang.
Average price attained (688.64 + 617.42) ÷ 2 = $653.03/Ct.
58,400 Cts x $653.03/Ct =
$38,136,952.
WORST of the WORST;
Take the auction results above from April 2015.
% Carats sold = 89 × 120,000 Cts = 106,800 Cts LQ sold by Mustang.
Average price attained $4.02/CT
106,800 Cts x $4.02 =
$429,336
I am also adding
$3,000,000 for the Specials,77 Cts, plus any other Extra Fine Quality stones we have found along the way.
100 Cts
Total Carats Sold at Mustang Auction;
58,400 + 106,800 + 100 = 165,300 Carats.
Total US Dollars;
38,136,952 + 429,336 + 3,000,000 = $41,566,288
I am very confident that we are taking 200,000 Carats to Auction 1.
I don't know what we will take to auction Auction 2 or even what our projected forcast is going to be.
So, my "
Inventory Valuation and per Carat Estimate for Auctions 1"
$41,566,288 ÷ 165,300 Cts sold = $251.50
All IMO, DYOR
I know, I know Specials are a sore point to myself and most I believe & maybe not for the same reasons. Does make my "Be Wary Safety Hat" come out every now and then, which is a good thing.
@Bluequartz &
@Genovese .
However, in my scenario they will add a fair value to the auction. I also understand the "Rhino" was included in the Gemfields December 2014 auction. That being said we have a few that are cut, increasing their value. I'm also going to add just for the record. We might just be surprised with a release of photo's a week or two prior to auction.
All IMO, DYOR.
Have to go check on Hurricane IRMA.
Great kite flying and free fish on your roof.
