Morning all,
noticed a post from a member and thought I would just make a comment. This is to do with investing - not trading.
I will also paraphrase what I read - there is no need to know who posted it - my comments are not personal in any way.
I am doing a new thread because it isn't the topic of the existing thread.
Someone commented that they were waiting for global conditions to be clearer before the bought into AJX.
so - there are factors which effect our market - you name it - it farts, we smell it - the dow, the Shanghai, any major catastrophe, the national economy etc.
I wanted to share something that a pretty smart cookie told me about 20 years back. He was a partner in an accounting firm that gave investment advice - and, he had built his own software that gave several targets for investment at any time - you would get a choice of about 20 or 30 stocks - these were all mature companies.
At the time - I was looking for a major investment and this looked good - but, there were conflicting views on how the markets would perform in the near future - because of ?? can't remember - god knows what - same as the list in the above probably.
I said to him - I like what I see, but, I am concerned about the conflicting views.
He said ------------ there are always conflicting views. If you wait until there aren't - you will be in the grave.
Since then, I have always had that in the back of my mind - and, I have observed - and, my observations tell me that he was and is right.
Of course - some conditions favor some stocks and the same conditions are dreadful for other stocks - but, that shows up in data - so, you can move your portfolio around to suit - as long as you don't keep changing horses willy nilly.
As to AJX - well, that's a different class of stock - but, the lessons are the same. Conditions are NEVER perfect. And, in the business - any business - not everything runs perfectly all the time - in fact, almost never. Conditions continually change.
So - waiting can be a very very long process. Now, in a fast growth company - waiting - otherwise called hesitation - can be deadly.
Have you noticed that we are much more comfortable waiting on the sidelines than we are waiting patiently once we enter the game?
It is so much easier to sit on the fence deliberating. It is also so bloody difficult to sit inside a stock - particularly if it is down on your entry price waiting for the business to perform and the SP to rise.
Then - unless you get taken over - it can be agony on when to exit - deliberation and hesitation again.
Basically - everything is against us psychologically.
In this modern world - we are surrounded by information - and unless you lock yourself in a cupboard - that information will come to you, like it or not.
A fair percentage of it will be in favor of you jumping into an investment - and a fair percentage of it will make you fear making the jump. The problem is - fear is our biggest driver.
Anyway - just a note on a comment I read - hope it makes sense.
One example of fear and how it raises it's ugly head - even after years of investing - a while back I was thinking strongly of entering a stock that had risen 40% in day or two. I liked the stock and I had been watching it for a while.
I went to push the buy button and I kept having these thoughts --------- oh, dear - it's risen 40% in such a short time - it could well fall back here ---------- day traders might have driven it up - you know how it goes - they put it up for a couple of days and then drop it in a heap.
There were also horror stories around about another GFC (as there have been for years) - etc. etc. - so, my mind was saying -------------- damm - this is a punt boy.
Thankfully - another part of my brain came in and said -------------- 'don't listen to that crap - you have done your homework ---------- all your lights are green - are you going to believe what you have worked weeks on and push that bloody button - or are you going to sit back on the chair and sit on your hands and wait and see what happens?'
I pushed the buy button ------
the stock was AJX - and the price was 11 cents.
I have never sold a share.
IMO - beware of the self -------------- there is a saying that is very very true in life and certainly in investing --
'he who hesitates is lost'
Have a great day all
Pinto
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