Alternative growth valuation post results announcements (assume last week of August - instead of June)
FY15 (31/8 SP $0.63, MC of $0.42b)
FY16 (29/8 SP $1.82, MC of $1.32b) – NPAT of $30.4m
FY17 (28/8 SP $5.11, MC of $3.75b) – NPAT of $90.6m
- MC from FY17 vs FY16 was a factor of 2.84 vs NPAT factor of 2.98 (relatively aligned) or roughly 3x
FY18 (27/8 SP $11.50, MC of $8.43b) – NPAT of $195.7m
- MC from FY18 vs FY17 was a factor of 2.25 vs NPAT factor of 2.16 (relatively aligned) or roughly 2x
FY19F NPAT of $280m (estimate assuming sales of $1.32b, similar NPAT ratio to FY18)
- FY19F vs FY18 NPAT factor of 1.43 or roughly 1.4x
FY19F SP should technically be equivalent to $11.50 x 1.43 or $16.44 (MC of >$12b), hence A2M is extremely undervalued at $10.58 (over 55% upside in my opinion) and that is being very conservative.
