I hear you, but I'm not ready to call the consumer cycle dead. I believe that, as westerners, its in our cultural DNA to shop. Heaven knows, as a household, my family likes to consider itself a vigilant consumer (not fanatical, but discerning) and yet we routinely beat a path to the mall.
And I observe the same of my circle of friends and associates who I would describe as middle-class Australians, with mortgages and children of school going age. They can't not shop.
And I have seen too many consumer cycles that take remarkably similar shapes and forms to be tempted into thinking that "this time it's different".
I remember some of the seminal moments in contemporary society when there was upposedly a lot of soul-seaching and philosophical questioning of the raison d'etre of western civilisation...times like the recession that followed the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the period after September 11, and the recession preceding the Iraq war.
In each case, the argument was made that humanity will have to change, that aspirational consumption is bad and that a structural change in the societal makeup is underway. Yet in each case, the consumer re-bounded with even more vigour than preceding the particular economic "disaster".
Admittedly, the current global economic "mishap" will surely be more enduring that any before it, but I beleive firmly that as long as the punters out there have a job - THAT's the critical determinant - they will continue to listen to their inner aspirational voice that tells them incessantly to obey the multi-generational cultural rhythm of: SHOP-WORK-EAT-SLEEP-SHOP
Take the US, as case-in-point: major wealth destruction in the form of property values, a massive mortgage foreclosure backlogs, multi-decade unemployment, falling houeshold incomes, gas prices approaching $3/gal, and yet consumer confidence is close to a 24-month high.
It's a bit of an indictment on the Condition-of-Mankind, but I don't think deeply-ingrained, cultural mores become altered within a few months or years. Maybe in four or five generations' time our descendents will have weaned themselves of the Breast of the Shopping Mall, but I'm of the firm view that during in my lifetime the heart of the consumer cycle will continue beating.
As for the on-line shopping phenomenon, its a very valid point you raise. My rebuttal to that concern is that it will continue to be an incremental phenomenon and the reason that it has picked up pace in 2010 is due, mostly, to the strength of the A$ which, as my central thesis contends, will decline. (And here's another morsel to consider in relation to this whole online phenomenon: put yourself in the shoes of those most mercurial of money marauders, namely the Australian banks. They'll be looking at this entire online gig as yet another revenue-garnering opportunity. My call is that before long, the collusive banks will have dreamt up a way to levy all sorts of sundry surcharges on online transactions.)
Don't get me wrong, I don't think that online shopping will ever go away, but by the same token, it will not put astute retailers out of business.
My observations of many years has taught me that the act of buying a good involves far more than just "getting it cheap" on the internet. I don't understand it myself (because I, personally, detest shopping), but there is an emotional, almost spiritual element to shopping...the getting ready for the Mall, the catching up with friends, the trying on the garment, the sights, the sounds, the lighting, the presentation, the titillating of the senses...unashamedly, retailers themselves call it "The Shopping Experience".
I might stand accused of being chauvinistic, but I often joke with my wife and daughters that shopping is the buying of something nice to wear to the shops the next time you go to the shops to buy something nice to wear to the shops.
Cameron
PS. Did you manage to sort out your querying of WHG's depreciation and amortisation reporting? I recall responding to your question, but am not sure if you received it
