It is going to be a bit hard to tell the true level of profitability, early on, unless FBR are extremely open and transparent in their reporting back to shareholders once the first few HX units have been deployed. Utilisation and Free Cash Flow margin per machine will be the most important KPIs to watch closely. I am interested to see how the realized Margin and Utilisation level differs to their original estimates.
FBR have been pretty clear around what kind of Free Cash Flow margin each machine is likely to bring in at what levels of utilisation. Therefore, if we get a good gauge on utilisation, it could get us most of the way there.
Judging by Mike's recent investor call, I believe he truly understands the need for speed in getting machines ready for deployment to start to bringing in positive Operating Cash Flow.
In my opinion, FBR will achieve a step change up in awareness. We can already see this starting to happen through higher levels of trading liquidity. Now, they will win or lose based on speed of manufacturing and resulting speed of deployment. Time is the new Gold, now that agreements are in place, and exposure is building. After passing SAT and the Demo builds, they will need to use the machine depots wisely/efficiently in order to minimise lead time and minimise speed to steady state. When FBR have reached steady state, and that opens up credit financing opportunities, we will hopefully see the next step change in manufacturing ramp.
From listening to Mike speak, it is clear to me that his priority is now turning to speed. We need the machine to be better, cheaper, faster. We need their ramp to be even faster than that.
Not investment advice. Do your own research, etc etc.
FBR Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
