I see what you're saying but don't entirely agree with how you're saying it.
Apologies in advance for the wall of text.
- The pharmacy land grab has reached a natural saturation point, so it's unlikely we'll see them reach their 65% 2018 target as quickly as they went from 35% to 50%.
- Organic growth is hard to maintain. It's not a MedAdvisor only issue. Telco is an example. 10 years ago there were many more ISPs around. The better ones like iiNet and Internode grew organically but then reached numbers where the industry chose to buy growth through acquisitions. I see nothing wrong with this approach as long as it buys 'real customers' and not a database.
- MedAdvisor listed in December 2015 at 3c. At 3.5c the share price is cheap - real cheap! Management bought at these levels in 2016 and as MJ mentions above, I hope Management gives the market a sign by buying down here again. They are highly paid for the size and type of organisation they are running. They performed a CR at 4 cents in October 2016. There's not been a quarter where revenue or customer numbers have gone backwards.
- I agree international expansion is likely to be expensive. The costs to integrate with PDX Inc would have been forecast with some contingency. The PDX announcement mentions MedAdvisor being well funded to complete the integration and PDX will be co-marketing MedAdvisor to it's 10,000+ pharmacies.
- I don't agree that competition is heating up locally. HealthEngine scored two own goals by admitting to changing negative reviews to better reflect the platform and even worse, selling personal medical information and referrals to lawyers. There's not a health management platform as integrated with all healthcare entities as MedAdvisor. I doubt they will lose market share - who to?
- I tend to agree somewhat with your statement that their business model is struggling. It's struggling, not failing but I put that on the business trying to go beyond 'start-up mode'. They mentioned in their AGM last year they increased their monthly fees to pharmacies resulting in a net loss of zero pharmacies. This suggests their model is sound and they could increase costs further. The newsletter above says they are focusing on increasing the tap-to-fill script orders and services. This generates $260M of annual value which MedAdvisor is currently not taking a cent from.
- MedAdvisor's revenue model is not simply increasing the number of app users. App users and numbers connected to each pharmacy has been taken over by SaaS applications like PlusOne. Yes the organic growth of users has plateaued but there's other strings to their bow.
- We still await the terms under HPS (EBOS subsidiary). As the interaction is through hospitals and not pharmacies it sounds like there's some (lots) of stakeholders to get on side.
MedAdvisor is working with HPS on the frameworks for initial hospital pilots to ensure the best insights are gained. We are confident that the proposition will be well received by patients, hospitals and the payors, whilst driving significant commercial opportunities for the business.
- My thoughts on the recent share price slide is a large holder (probably not even Top 20) needed out. The daily buy/sell side is so thin the only way to vacate was to push the price down.
- The FY results is due in a couple weeks. I hope they announce HPS soon. I also hope they can add something to discuss at the AGM, even if it's an iHealth type feel good integration. They will surely provide an update before the year is out on PDX Inc progress plus anything on the UK side (Boots perhaps). There's also $10M burning a hole in their pocket. They should also start to see some revenue from the Zest and Terry White work in Q1 or Q2 FY19.
(20min delay)