GT great work. Again.
Your EV calc is 100% correct and many thanks for calculating and Perhaps CorpFin GT is now more appropriate. Great work.
In this conversation though the issue at hand is the calculation of Market Capitalisation of which what is Outstanding and that goes to what is "Tradeable" on the exchange today...and what matters in ASX or NYSE or Commsec "outstanding shares" calculation. This debate us not ours alone but argued world over and discussed at top exchanges, and top business schools like the one I went to.
Fully diluted is not what MC is all about nor intended to reflect. No argument from me on EV diluted with all Issued shares, rights options and escrowed perf shares etc included. That is the M&A base case valuation. (No premia). That's Black and white. Your EV calc is 100% correct as all rights, options perf shares become vested immediately for takeover. Takeovers are great news and as I have shown we sit in a sweet spot of that so Christmas is appropriate to discuss and remember this.
For MC today, for Commsec, the ASX or NYSE et its 405m (tradeable) plus convertible ITM options (tradeable). Commsec does lag on conversion or placement or ITM options.
However in MC Escrowed Performance shares are treated the same as escrowed shares and are deemed "unlisted" for Exchange MC calculations for good reason. That is, 99.9% of the time escrowed belong to founder owners who can elect to sell or not sell. They can escrow indefinitely or bring them all into outstanding at that future date and only after that date...but that is decided by them at that date.
A good proxy as I suggested is ring them and ask them their intentions. I am willing to bet they say they are not selling no dumping those shares now or 10 years from now.
Today one cannot buy escrowed or perf shares with out one buying the entire company.
Exchanges cannot work on a fully diluted issued shares basis and only work on outstanding ( which tradeable ) as many companies can cancel issued shares or alter their structure at any time or owners can roll all or some escrowed shares.
You can assume they will become outstanding but assuming is not facts which exchanges legally require.
We also need to compute your exceptional valuation base case calculation for all ASX companies but at least for our comparables. BRN and IAM.
Let's not get upset at one another though. These are viewpoints. Its a worthy debate to clarify.
Best to all Flamingos.
GG
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