I see the following base case as still godd value given the current market cap.
1/2 the high grade is basernite and extractable with low cost acid leach. Leaving us 20 million tonnes and 800000 tones of REO.
1. We desing a 20 year mine life, 1 Mt pa for 40000 tonnes of REO.
2. After extraction we produce 35000 tonnes in concentrate or 100000 tonnes of concentrate at 35% REO.
3. There is demand for 35000 tonnes of REO from PEK in 2016
4. There is a REO price of $90/kg
5. We sell the concentrate for $10/kg which would be roughly $30/kg of REO.
6. This genreates $1 billion in revenue.
7.Just say it cost $1/2 million per day to operate the mine and leach facility, this leaves ~$800 million pa
8. 50% for tax and roaylties leaves $400 million NPAT
9. This could support a market cap of $4 billion, 100 x our current level.
10. If we can build the mine, leach facility, roads and rail loading for less than $1.5 billion (~2-3 year pay back) then it should be attracitve for most major resource investors.
It seems only 2, 3 and 4 are holding us back. Point 2 should be close to being resolved in ~6 weeks and resolved by the end of the year. It seems 3 and 4 are holding us back.
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4 | 132662 | 0.195 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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