Investors could make 10 times their money on this gas stock, says analyst, page-16

True Jonty,
But several things mitigate the risk you emphasise somewhat. First, they know the gas is there and it can flow. Second, the 3D seismic has allowed them to identify targets that are less likely to be effected by water. Third, Alcoa would have done a lot of due diligence, given the previous history and the cost of the forthcoming wells. Fourth, there are two wells being drilled, so even if the first encounters water or poor flows, we get another crack. Finally, fraccing/unconventional technology has come a long way in OZ since the last holes were drilled.