Jusik,
that is some interesting ironic logic :)
Posing the question of why the stock price is rising while posting an article which clearly states they are undervalued ;)
I went large on MPO some time back. They have a very good risk reward profile and have substantial latent value in their assets.
The dip they have recently experienced, while coninciding with some bigger market moves (-), is pretty typical behavior of a lot of exploring stocks. I consider their general cycles as follows:
A. Identification of Prospects (excitement, moderate price rises, followed by consolidation/falls).
B. Raising of Capital (disappointing as people realise things arent free, initial price decline, then rise, then sideways movement/churn) or a Farmout
C. A pause while planning approval for drilling is granted (people getting bored, stock price decline)
D. Drilling of the prospect (people 'rediscovering' the stock, price rises)
E. The outcome (collapse or surge on the result).
Each stock is unique and has it's own plots and sub-plots that murky the water, but here is an STX chart which typically shows what I am talking about in them drilling their EFS acreage.
As for MPO, well I am really quite buoyed that the market has got it so worng on them. The management issues and problems in the wider market has really turned investors off a little nugget of gold.
What this means to me is, I believe we can expect a very very positive response on positive outcomes from the Wolfcamp drilling. They have a number of wells stacked to deliver results and we should expect a string of successes to rally the stock now through to christmas.
The current rates of recovery are very positive for the performance of the well so as long as they are not recovering all the proppant they also should have placed :)
Anyway, after NDRC approval, sitting on a wad of cash with some wells and acreage should set them up for a positive, very positive move imo!
Cheers,
SF
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