Notwithstanding the strident comments that you have directed personally at me, I think you are largely right.
But remember that I made a point of saying that my analysis should be treated as being indicative, rather than prescriptive. Unfortunately, you appear to have taken it to be prescriptive and absolute.
And yes, MSB's various addressable markets are very very big, but - due to simple physical limitations relating to supply chain constraints and market awareness and rates of adoption - there is no way MSB will get to supplying even 10% of those markets in their year or two of "SSC".
So the thrust of my analysis was - irrespective of the level of Sales and Profitability at which MSB kicks off at the start of SSC - that the ensuing growth would be very strong.
And as a result, largely irrespective of the multiple at which early-year, post-SSC, earnings are capitalised, the investment returns would still be most attractive.
But if you are arguing that my analysis is a waste of time because the company is certain to be acquired before it even reaches the point of SCC, and that's the real reason to be a shareholder now, well then that's a separate debate altogether, and I accept that is a view some might legitimately adopt.
Buying companies because I think someone else is going to pay me a materially higher price than what I paid for them happens to not be my view of smart investing (because I see very little precedent for it being successful), but I fully accept that some people might see that as a fast-track way to create wealth for themselves.
But if that is your approach - i.e., that the stock is going to be acquired once its products are proven - shouldn't you still wait to see whether the trials are successful before buying?
Because if the trial results are unambiguously positive, then whatever bidding war erupts for the company, would not happen instantaneously.
But if the trial results are not positive, then...
MSB Price at posting:
$2.48 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)