MSB (ASX) invitation to madamanswer to comment

Originally posted by Naughty Morty ↑

"From an analytical point of view Madam has shown he is very very strong. His response yesterday to my post about a "sure trading thing" demonstrates this. If he knocked on Sivlio's door and convinced him that he could help him attain these financial results over time, he would be offered a job."

With respect I think you're too easily impressed there Alhambra, I'm guessing one could train the receptionist at MSB to come up with an analysis like the one presented in an hour or so - that's meant to be complimentary to receptionists btw. The "analysis" might be suitable for a widget manufacturer with a clearly defined market and very limited ambitions but the assumptions are incompetent or lazy at best when considering what technology companies such as MSB may realise if they are successful and the effects this can have on the dynamics of the market they are seeking to enter. So for me this analysis (from someone who has dedicated countless hours over many years to this company) highlights an ability to grasp some fundamental points and therefore reflects rather badly on their competence for analytical thinking.

Here are some points to consider which I believe could be useful in making a start on understanding what potentially is at stake with MSB by looking at the RA market segment.

Firstly consider the accessible market size which MSB is currently targeting in RA. Total market size is currently around 50B USD annually for the top 3 anti-TNF drugs (Humira, Remicade and Enbrel).
Anti TNF refractory RA (MSB's trial cohort) appears in roughly 6 to 15% of RA sufferers, for the purposes of this exercise in establishing the directly assessable market for MSB in RA let's assume worst case 6% giving a PRESENT market size of 3B USD.

Secondly consider the patent cliff facing the two top grossing anti-TNF biologics in 2018. With biosimilar products already approved and courts finding favourably for new entrants this market is on the verge of some severe disruption.

Thirdly, review the data being generated from the current MSB trial. Which patients are the best responders? (Data mining to some, Dogs bollocks to others!). Is there a sustainable and durable response?
That 6% worst case looking very harsh.

Needless to say I could go on but hard as it is to believe I have something better to do this arvo so I'll leave you with some thoughts to ponder.

Analysis above is only for RA. Success in this one indication would crystallise a revaluation of MSB across all potential target markets.

If MSB is successful in P3 RA then the strategy of entering when self -sustaining commercialisation (SSC) is demonstrated will be as fruitful as waiting for Godot! IMHOFWIW MSB will be acquired at a massive premium to present prices IF P3 RA success eventuates.

Hence the need to be a shareholder - if you have the appetite for the risk of course because trial success is of course not guaranteed. If you don't then all well and good but basing your strategy on something happening (SSC) which probably won't happen is perhaps not well enough considered - just saying.

GLTAH and watchers.

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Naughty Morty,

Madam didn't address my suggestion in full. He jumped to the end and laid out an impressive financial set of figures. You are bringing to notice the descriptive part in your post which is necessary to address to enable the company to get there in the first place. Just the same his work is impressive. And a consensus would still be needed to agree that " a sure thing investment" was attained because all the descriptions of it, as set out at the beginning, had been met.

You've mentioned recently that you have had some success in the bio-tech sector. I thought then I should ask you to share your methods with us. I thought at the time, Naughty is a bio-tech whisperer. Please tell us more.

All the best,

Alhambra.

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(20min delay)
Last 97.0¢		Change -0.025(2.51%)		Mkt cap ! $1.107B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
97.0¢	$1.01	96.5¢	$7.757M	7.884M

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