At the time of giving guidance in August ($6-$16m EBITDA), the...

At the time of giving guidance in August ($6-$16m EBITDA), the FY16 price of iron ore ranged from ~$US50-60/t and the A$ was trading around US$0.75 (now $0.72). In my opinion, the top end of guidance would have been based on ~$0.75 and ~US$60/t. In addition, volumes sold from iron valley are more likely to be 8mt, not the 7mt guided.
I believe that the royalty payment is likely to be on a sliding scale, the higher the iron ore price, the greater the royalty to BCI (share the pain and the gain).
Lets look at the upside potential to guidance and assume iron ore remains at US$75, FX at $0.74 and volumes 8mt:
1. Volume uplift (7 to 8mt) - 14%
2. FX uplift (0.75 to 0.74) - 1.3%
3. Iron ore price (60 to 75) - 25%
Under these assumptions, BCI could be on track to produce $23m EBITDA (before sliding scale uplift).
Sep Q1 was $4.6m ($19m annualised), when FX and iron ore much lower than Q2, sort of confirms my estimate.
Assuming $23m, this places BCI on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just 1.3x FY17F. Not sure you can find many stocks cheaper than this. Plus it is well positioned when WPIOP does proceed.
I see a lot of comments on why they aren't making announcements on Bucklands. I think they have to have all the JV partners locked in first and this takes time. When it is announced, it should be when the project has FID and is going to proceed. With higher I/O, this is a possibility.
I am happy to own a stock that is very cheap, with several potential major catalysts. Even if they don't occur, Iron Valley is a long term earnings stream (though subject to the iron ore price) that does not appear reflected in the share price.