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11,437 Posts.

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24/02/16

10:03

Post #: 17100613
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Originally posted by parcs ↑

We have already seen the numbers, they came out in the quarterly.

We know AGO lost A$40M last quarter.
We know at the end of last quarter working capital was down to A$49M.
We know the full cash cost, forex rates, cash position and production figures.

All this came out in the quarterly.

What we don't know is:
Impairment write-downs - does this put AGO under the debt-equity covenant?
Details of current and non-current liabilities - is the state royalty debt included in the A$59M of current liabilities?

We might see a couple of standard motherhood statements but anything material regarding current operational costs, revenues, profitability or debt restructure would be released separately (continuous disclosure).

AGO is not going to put out an investor announcement stating that yesterday's IO delivery into China saw them become "profitable" for the first time this year (and probably the first time since October last year). I use the term profitable loosely as there are a number of cash outflows not accounted for in the full cash cost figure such as capital costs, depreciation and principle debt repayments.

TB, $12/t? Really?
If they were selling 62%Fe maybe, but AGO sells 57%Fe at a 20% discount. Based on your "maths" AGO are still losing $1.65/t, only $68k/day.

SP might move up on IOP but IMO, don't expect to see a reversion to 3.3c any time soon. AGO has lost something like A$50M since the SP was last 3.3c. Take $50M off the MCAP when SP was 3.3 and you have an equivalent of today's SP of 1.4c. Less resource depletion, market uncertainty, impairments and write-downs, a potential costly CSA - what is fair value?

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So parcs and redrock hows the BHP investment look, buy on the high?

AGO Price at posting: 1.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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