Using the analysis in my previous post which was all about thinking of Arrium as just a Iron Ore company and effectively backing out Steel and Mining Consumables.
Assuming FY15 Iron Ore average's = $US91 and audusd = 0.94
Cash profit after capex (stay in business), 'e' below is cash profit.
Arrium = 0.19 a share or P/E = 4.2
FMG = 0.44 a share or P/E = 9.2
So FMG is TWICE as expensive in cash profit terms for FY15 right now.
My FMG forecast is not as solid as ARI's due to uncertainty around grade discounts and SIB capex. I need to see the numbers for this half and quarter now that 155Mt is completed in March. Even if it is 50% off, FMG is still 50% more expensive.
ARI Price at posting:
80.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
