ANPto2Dollars - interesting report and suggests that there may...

ANPto2Dollars - interesting report and suggests that there may be another potential buyer for ANP popping up over the next year or so.

Thought I'd offer a few comments for discussion and my conclusion that your moniker maybe isn't far off what could be offered by IONIS if they were interested in consolidating ANP into the fold in the next few months. Any estimates on valuation depend on a wide range of assumptions, so ANP holders can substitute these guesses to come up with their own metrics for comparison.

Akcea Takeover valuation on Nasdaq at 100% equity equivalent was US$2.1 bill, less $0.4 bill cash gives an EV of US$1.7 bill or A$2.3 bill

1 .Assume premium for Nasdaq listed stock vs same stock listed on ASX is 50% (just a guess) Therefore Aust listed val: $2.3 /1.5 = $1.5 bill
2. Assume Akcea value vs ANP is 40% greater, allowing for more developed pipeline, (1 drug approved, 3 Ph3 trials, 2 Ph2 trials)
but significantly smaller potential markets vs ANP's DMD, MS, Acro, "multiple other opportunities instead of corticosteroids waiting for our IP
protection" including autoimmune diseases such as Type 1 diabetes, Rheumatoid Arthritis, asthma, SLE, Inflammatory Bowel Disease, etc
So reduce the 'Aussie Enterprise Value of Akcea' for ANP's lesser development by 40% (again, a guess) : $1.5 bill/1.4 = $1.4 bill
Theoretical value of ANP today - or next couple of months - on ASX, to match Akcea metric = $2 per share

This price seems so far above our current market price to be too 'pie in the sky' - and it may be. But with our major shareholders and management having a good understanding of the likely huge future value for ANP and their ability to hold off accepting a takeover bid until an favourable offer to them is made, it's quite conceivable that their voting bloc can withstand the pressure from retail investors to accept a lower offer for at least 90% equity - before compulsory acquisition provisions allow gaining the last 10%. In two - three months we may have EMA and FDA approvals for ODD, RPD, a ~ A$140 mill value Priority Review Voucher and Acromegaly partnership.

As an aside, it's been reported recently that the death rate of severely ill Covid 19 patients has reduced by 20-25% by intravenously injecting them with corticosteroids to reduce their inflammation caused by excessive immune response. Could ATL 1102 deliver better outcomes?