"Whilst I agree that CNX has ticked most if not all the boxes, the ultimate approval is still dependent on some guys who will face the electorate every 3-4 years and this decision, IMHO, is not expected short of the next election"
I agree and my faith in Politicians isn't exuberant, especially since mining and gas companies can still legally donate to Political Party coffers. Although we are only seeking authorizaion to proceed to Application, not authorization of a Project Application. That's why I give it a 50/50 chance that we may get it prior to summer break. I'm not holding my breath for expectations either way. I will say I do expect it to come though even if the timeline is slower than CNX's projection. However I think that is looking more at the micro picture rather than the macro which has been gaining significant momentum over the last few years in particular.
My faith or reasoning in that also has a base in Australian Gas Usage not only in Domestic household usage but also in Mining, Manufacturing and Energy usage and projected requirements. Those sectors have been making demands at a State and Federal level for a few years now and as a lot of contracts expire in 2015 as well as the ACCC Joint Selling Authorizations which expire next year as well. (For the uninitiated the ACCC JSA enables companies to virtually collude in price selling to some extent. This applies to LNG at this time, again see reports below.)
In 2012 Australia was using around 700PJ pa, in 2015 that is project at double of around 1400PJ, in 2020 the projection is 2400-2500PJ pa. These aren't my figures, they are from the Australian Government Department of Industry, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (see link below).
At present Australia is the only Gas producing Country that does not have a Reserve Policy for Domestic Use, most others force or have in place a 15% pa reserve hold on gas. IMO we may see some form of Gas Reservation in the not to distant future.
Incitec Pivot (a major Shareholder here) on page 5 of the Domestic Gas Security Report 2012, also indicated the value is see's from a Ammonia Plant, given reasonable Gas prices. RIO page 14 and Impact of Australian Manufacturing and Jobs, page 9.
I could go on, but I would have people falling asleep reading this. Suffice to say I think UCG has a considerable niche that it can fill in not only the shorter term, but considerably in the longer term for Countries like Australia that have significant Coal reserves and numerous uneconomic (mining) reserves.
Basically why I see a bright future for UCG once up and running. I place large importance to this Commercial Project. The Cost/Production/Profit analysis and even dare I say Environmental standards, may well prove it's case for considerable projects around Australia, not only for Gas, but for Chemical, Fertilizer, Energy and Fuel productions.
For those interested, I'd suggest a read of the two links below, even if you read the first one and lightly skim the second, it's why I think UCG has a place and it's time may be coming as an addition to Australian Gas Production in general. It may also assist one in understanding why so much money is invested in Gas. It's also why I'm not overly worried at this point for CNX to secure a Financial JV, I'd conjecture that there has to be more than a few Major Companies that would be happy to secure their own gas supply and that's just for starters.
Australian Domestic Gas Security Report 2012... (33 pages)
http://www.domgas.com.au/pdf/Alliance_reports/DomGas Report 2012.pdf
Australian Government Department of Industry Bureau of Resources and Energy Domestic Gas Market Study 2013/14 (133 pages)
http://www.industry.gov.au/Energy/E...s/EasternAustralianDomesticGasMarketStudy.pdf
SP seems to be holding steady at this point, as I said if we don't get approval to proceed to Application prior to break we may see some southerly movement and an opportunity for the faithful to add or others to enter although the T20 appear to be holding steady with Pacific Roads previously even adding.
Each to there own strategy wise. My investment here is longer term and I don't hold expectations with any major certainty in either way for short term play. Although I must say during the last major Trading Play it sure was tempting to make a quick buck or two.
