One way to think about it:If you invest $100m over 5 years into...

One way to think about it:

If you invest $100m over 5 years into proving up the project to DFS, construction-ready status, will the asset's market value rise by significantly more than that? I'm not betting on short term SP movements based on sentiment.

If NPV can double over that period, and discount to NPV falls due to being at a higher level of studies and resource definition, then it's possible for the asset value to rise significantly. Assumptions:

- No bad surprised about processing, sorting etc.
- No bad surprises from the existing inferred/indicated resources.
- Some of the exploration targets deliver, so the RPM plant has higher utility and more years of up-front high production levels.
- The road happening.


Why think of it like that? Because explorers are bound to consume cash at regular intervals. Why would a lender lend money with such risks? People only invest because of equity upside, meaning, raisings is how they fund exploration.

So if you understand that raisings are necessary, you can make decisions based on that - whether the asset will gain value over time / is the asset likely to reach development.

If you're not participating in raisings, then dilution is painful (unless some nice surprises drive up the SP). If you're participating, then you can think of it as per above - the cost of developing the asset.

If you don't like raisings, you'd better invest in a mature high-margin miner.


"think about it for a second, you are also implying part of your investment thesis is for rates to fall back to 0??? in the absence of a blackswan event, that ain't going to happen or happen within the timeframe NVA needs."

I'm not betting on rates going to 0. I'm betting on the asset. If rates fell, that would be a side benefit - driving up price multiples of micro-caps.


As for today, the US listing seems to be hurting the SP. But once that's done, it'll be neutral or a strength.