I love a good debate assuming you were replying to my post, if not then I apologise for dissecting your post!
re: "Hey Downramper/ keyboard warrior,"
~ This sort of comment has been a typical response not just on the Equinox threads but across all stocks that are discussed on HotCopper. It usually stems from a holder that plainly doesn't like the narrative but can offer very little in the way of a rebuttal to the contents of posts.
re: "Don't think you have a crystal ball to say things with all this certainty."
~ considering that the "factual information" contained within my posts have actual links to the source, so no crystal ball sitting on my desk top.
If you missed any points of why I don't have confidence in (a) Equinox's Hamersley Iron Ore Project and (b) Iron Ore in general:
(i) The Office of the Chief Economist, forecasts Iron Ore prices to regain some ground in the later part of 2021 but fall below US$100 m/t in 2022 (Fe ~ 62%)
(ii) Prices are forecast to average around US$150 a tonne in 2021, before falling to below US$100 a tonne in 2022
(iii) In early July, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a target of scrap steel use of 320 million tonnes by
2025. This compares with 250 million tonnes of scrap steel consumed by Chinese steelmakers in 2020. To aid this process, China lifted its ban on scrap steel imports at the start of 2021
From page 34 of the report:: https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/resourcesandenergyquarterlyseptember2021/documents/Resources-and-Energy-Quarterly-September-2021.pdf
(iv) UBS Analysts indicating US$88.00 m/t in 2022 (Fe ~ 62%)
(v) Venture Minerals cited the increase in product Fe ~ 58% vs Fe ~ 62% variance from 10% (used in the Company's 2019 Feasibility Study) to the current market rate of 30%, as well as the volatile shipping markets with rates tripling from US$18t (Feasibility Study) to current rate of US$54t.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-riley-mine-update-following-completion-of-first-shipment.6291647/
(vi) Mount Gibson also cited the significant widening of discounts and penalties for medium and lower grade ores and the rapid rise in shipping rates from $US15t doubling to US$30t.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-operating-update-staged-suspension-of-shine-iron-ore-mine.6323456/
(vii) Chinese government announced its aim to diversify its current Iron Ore supply (Australia accounts for 60%) which also includes a target of 45% self-sufficiency in steel making raw materials by 2025 up from 19% (2020)
(viii) Steelmakers outside the city of Tangshan were ordered to scale back production from June, and provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong and
Anhui have all signalled an intention to cut output in the second half of the year.
(ix) Venture Minerals ASX:VMS - (Mount Riley), GWR Group - ASX:GWR, (C4 Iron Ore), Indus Mining (Ridges) and Mount Gibson ASX:MGX (Shine)
https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/slumping-iron-ore-prices-claim-another-two-mines/
(x) Equinox's Hamersley Iron Ore resource has low Fe and high impurities, unless that changes (and it should) then they will attract discounting to the premium price (benchmarked at Fe ~ 62%, fastmarkets)
re: "company just got listed and might pursue number of things."
~ pretty much the same logic as PF1 shareholders have, waiting on that "other massive acquisition" that hasn't eventuated (yet )
~ Equinox as per its Prospectus have a M & A budget of A$200,000 for complementary assets/opportunities, not sure what that will get you, eh?
~ Under the auspices of the ASX, PF1 tried to utilise funds outside of what was intended as per their Prospectus, and got a please explain query
~ as you have just stated, company just got listed, why would they be already looking for another asset?
re: "No mention of management in your posts or lead manager or register"
~ As for the management, Taylor's appointment was good, well credentialed but as for the rest - MEH
~ Lead manager, Ahmad - that is what he does as a business, was paid accordingly
~ Register, no surprises to the makeup of it - and part of the IPO hype of following the "smart money"
Summary: No crystal ball, and absolutely nothing is certain but I will take economists/analyst reports over "twitter and HotCopper" posters analytics.
Opinion only: I personally believe that "substantial holders of a share" should be bound by the same rules governing "board of directors" and thus should be required to be identified on HotCopper.
cheers
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