IPO - GQG Partners Inc. - 26 October 2021 #, page-340

Hi @craig321

I don’t see anything in your post to substantiate a price valuation one way or another, maybe based on worse case price below.

Here is simpler detail based on data contained in above post:
- Worst case: Meets forecast of $US92.5B in FUM and PE Ratio realigns to Magellan’s current 15.5 times PE Ratio, $1.80 share price (markets have to tank big time and will impact all Fund Managers). I guess PE Ratios could fall to 15 times and maybe similar to Platinum at 10 times PE Ratio, but then we would be seeing Magellan at $22.50. This is not probable.
- Current trend case: Exceeding forecast to $US110B in FUM and 16.74 PE Ratio is maintained against exceeding forecast, $2.37 share price
- Re-rating case (let’s call this “the cream on top range”): Based on Magellan historical PE Ratio when it was growing at similar rates to GQG now. 2012 was 22 times and 2019/2021 was 30 times is:
22x14.2c=$3.12
30x14.2c=$4.26

In terms of good news being already priced in, based on PE Ratios it is far from that. Compare to PNI (50 x EPS) and AEF (160 x EPS), GQG is very good value at 16.74 x EPS (FYI - GQG grows FUM on average between 1 and 2 AEF’s a quarter and has just under triple AEF’s profit margin) *see FUM table from previous post.

Best of Luck
Lost