ggpCanaccord Genuity viewWe have returned from Telfer-Havieron...

ggp

Canaccord Genuity view

We have returned from Telfer-Havieron with a more positive view on the near and medium-term outlook for the company:

•Near term: JunQ'25 is performing well, and the company is confident it will produce in-line with guidance (JunQ CGe: 83 koz, with FY25E AISC of A$2,168/oz).

•Medium term: There are a range of likely life extension options for Telfer via the Central and Southern extensions, the Main Dome Underground, and West Dome Deeps.

•Long term: Havieron is likely to be significantly bigger, at a modest additional cost. Based on our observations and analysis, we now assume a further year of production at Telfer in FY28 (beyond the current 2-year mine plan), and 15 years of production at Havieron utilising a higher 4.25 Mt throughput scenario (~300 koz p.a. steady-state, at ~US$900/oz LOM average AISC, for A$300m in additional spend).

Upside scenario: We have also assessed an upside scenario which shows that, at current gold prices, the combined operation could reach production levels of >400 koz through to 2035. The blended production scenario we have put forward would carry higher AISC from FY29 (US$1,200-1,400/oz or A$1,900-2,200/oz) than the base case, but this would be offset by the additional gold production, resulting in a +40-50% uplift in EBITDA, and a 'blue-sky' valuation of ~34p (versus 29p in the base case).

Significant shift in a short time

We note the significant change in outlook for Telfer (which had an initial mine plan of just 15 months when Greatland took ownership of the asset). In its ~7 months of operation, the company has updated the reserve, outlined a longer mine plan, and has identified the key extension options. Management impressed us on site, and we believe it is in a strong position to execute on the company's strategy.

Australian multiple, attractive upside

Upon listing on the ASX, we expect the stock to trade strongly on the back of strong institutional demand, positive catalysts, and index inclusion. We note that, if the stock was to just trade in-line with its Australian gold producer peers (~0.8x P/NAV), this would result in a share price of 23p/A$0.46 - implying +58% upside to the current LSE share price.

Risks and critical path

In our time at site, we have also attempted to identify the key risks to the development plan and the critical path focus. In our view, we see water management at Havieron as the key focus, in addition to managing the tailings facilities. We believe the critical path for Havieron is the construction of ventilation capacity (via 2 ventilation shafts) to facilitate use of the 2.8 mtpa single trucked decline.

Modelling changes and valuation

We have adjusted our numbers for the production assumptions detailed above. This has resulted in minimal changes over the near-term, but we see a 29p NAV/shr as a result of the