ipo price, page-9

If Palmer is vending in ARH, worth about $1b; his $5b east coast steel plant project; Meo which I have no idea the value of but for the purpose of this exercise say $.5b; his controlling share holding in his Gladstone Pacific Nickel, (listed on the London Stock Exchange) whose plant in Queensland is valued at $3.65b.
It seems like he is vendoring into RDI over $10b worth of
projects to raise $5b - $7b on the markets. One would think then that $2.20 plus would be acheived on listing without too much bother.
What I cannot underdstand is that the market must fear this is not going to happen or my numbers must be wrong or something because ARH is currently trading at $1.38.
If my assumptions are correct why would investors not be loading up at anything below $1.50 for a return within 6 months of $2.20 +, almost a 50% return.
I have been holding ARH since the Sherlock Nickel days and will wait until at least RDI is listed before working out an exit strategy. Good luck to all holders.
Stumpjump.