I am hearing a lot of people talk about the business model and may not understand the demographic that Acorns is targeting all too well.
From a User Experience perspective, the product is seemless and a great app. From a product perspective, the underlying benefit is that it works without the customer having to actively remember to save. For the under $5k balance, they offer diversification and a low cost structure.
I emailed the company pre-IPO to ask why they the minimum investment in the IPO was $5k. There was response was that for many of the users, their total investment balances were low and for many of them their investment knowledge was low. Although i don't agree with their response (name a more passionate and supportive shareholder group than customers), it does highlight that this product fills a massive hole in the market. It does resemble Afterpay (APT) in some regard, as although others are trying to play in their space, they will continue to gain momentum.
The holes/risks I see in the business are:
-Executive remuneration is high for a company of this size
-The CEO is also CEO/Managing Director of numerous other companies. If he is getting $m in salary, bonus and stock, he better be 100% focused on this company. You don't want a part time CEO.
-They have not increased marketing presence or ramping up SEM, Social Ads etc which is strange as they are a growth company focused on millennial's.
- They appear t have purchased Acorns Asian license. Acorns is still in the US and a good benchmark to compare RAIZ to. But also flags the risk that RAIZ may have a license to the region but Acorns in the US may own the IP. Therefore just like with Reckon and Quickbooks, The owner of the IP can pull it and have you squirm around trying to build a new product.
-They appear to not have some institutional investors that are not long term supporters, hence the selloff from $1.80. This indicates volatility under they clear own, likely to be after reporting season.
- Need to keep a close eye on the the active users, even daily active users if they release/track that information. People can set up accounts as its free but need to see how many put their money where their mouth is.
The earnings will come and the growth will continue. They will then will likely raise capital to go through the next phase of growth (either Asia or Super). This is a standard pattern for a tech company.
Also will guessing where the price may drop may not be the best approach. Based on research, if it was a buy at $1.80 then its still a buy at $1.30.
I haven't seen any brokers pick it up on research. If anyone has seen any sell side brokers pick it up, please let me know
All of this is just a opinion. Be sure to do your own research.
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