obvioulsy some people are set in their ways - rusty old lib supporters - but young are going for rudd, even a lot of the grey vote is changing over to rudd. last night (on tv but at a liberal party meeting in adelaide)), howard said that the "australian people were not mugs", and hopefully they are not mugs. the following is a chilling read for those howard lovers
So who says victory is assured?
The numbers do.
On October 26 the Australian Electoral Commission announced that 13,645,073 voters had enrolled before the rolls closed three days earlier for next weekend's election. That represents 550,000 more than had been on the electoral rolls three years earlier (13,098,461) and almost 1.3 million than actually voted in the 2004 election.
The commission also gave a breakdown of the age groupings of the Australian electorate. These are:
18-24: 1,535,870.
25-39: 3,513,510.
40-54: 3,856,190.
55 and over: 4,739,500.
The figures in each have been rounded.
If nothing else, the breakdown tells you why Howard has been showering the over-55s with a poultice of electoral inducements to shore up the Coalition's hold on the so-called grey vote. It is the biggest voting cohort - and getting bigger, and generally greedier, all the time.
So how do all four age groups see the choice?
The Nielsen organisation's John Stirton analysed figures in recent weeks on Nielsen polling averages during the campaigns of the Howard Coalition's four winning elections (1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004), as well as for October of this year's campaign, and matched them with the voting outcome in each election. His numbers included breakdowns for each age group, for each state, for men and women, and city/country.
They give a reasonable idea of why the Coalition has been nearing hysterics over what is happening - and not happening - as election day has drawn closer.
For one, Labor in Nielsen's polling has been killing the Coalition in all age groups but the over-55s, where the Coalition has an advantage nationally of 49 per cent to 43 per cent in the primary vote.
But even that six-point lead over Labor is well down on the Coalition's "grey vote" support during each of the four earlier campaigns.
The relevant figures among over 55s are: 1996 - Coalition 58, ALP 32; 1998 - Coalition 47, ALP 37; 2001 - Coalition 55, ALP 32; and 2004 - Coalition 58, ALP 34. This campaign, according to Nielsen's polling, Labor has gained nine percentage points among over-55 voters (up from 34 per cent to 43 per cent) three weeks out from polling day.
In the other age groups the Coalition is lagging far behind.
This election, polling among 18-24s, including first-time voters, has increased Labor's advantage in this age group to 53 per cent to the Coalition's 32 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens polling 11 per cent, easily their best showing in any of the four age groupings.
Three years ago Labor's lead over the Coalition among young voters was a mere 2 points - 43 per cent to 41 per cent. The swing this campaign has been a huge 10 percentage points. Among 25 to 39s, Labor is favoured 49 per cent to the Coalition's 38 per cent, an 11-point gap, while in the 40 to 54 age grouping - the electorate's largest - the gap is even greater, at 13 points - 51 per cent to 38 per cent.
Overall, including the over-55s, Labor in the three years since the 2004 campaign has increased its primary vote in all states and all age groupings by more than 925,000 votes, according to Nielsen's analysis translated to the 13.64 million Australians eligible to vote next Saturday. This is almost exactly the same margin the Coalition polled against Labor in its landslide against the Keating government in 1996.
More broadly, Stirton's analysis three weeks out had Labor leading the Coalition 49 per cent to 40 per cent in the cities, 46 per cent to 43 per cent among country voters, 47 per cent to 41 per cent among men, and 48 to 41 per cent among women. And why should we think voters would change dramatically - as they would have to - for Howard to come surging from behind to win in these final days?
Because such thinking is absolute nonsense given Rudd's leadership has transformed how voters have perceived Labor all year. The last time the Coalition led Labor on the primary vote was exactly a year ago, when Kim Beazley was still leader. Not once has the Coalition polled above Labor since Rudd replaced Beazley in the first week of December.
And perhaps Stirton's most significant analysis of campaign polling over the past four elections since 1996, compared with what has been happening among voters this year, is the comparison with the result in each election.
In 1996 Nielsen's sampling of the Coalition's support during the campaign period averaged 47.7 per cent, compared with the Coalition's primary vote on polling day of 47.2 per cent, while Nielsen's campaign average for Labor was 38.6 per cent compared with its vote of 38.8 per cent.
In the 1998 GST election the figures were just as remarkably similar: Coalition 42.2 per cent poll average, 39.5 per cent actual; Labor 41.2 per cent poll average, 40.1 actual.
This was the election where Labor won the popular vote nationally - by 0.6 per cent - but lost the election reasonably comfortably in the marginals. John Howard still clings to the hope he can do the same again. But this time Labor's surging primary vote all year makes such a turnaround in the final week impossible.The 2001 and 2004 elections were a mirror of the figures between campaign polling and the actual result. And this year, with the election just seven days away, Nielsen's campaign primary poll average for Labor is 48 per cent, the Coalition 41.5 per cent. With a week to go that says lights out at Kirribilli for the Howards and welcome Kevin Rudd and co.
The carnage in NSW and Queensland will be immense.
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as dave r has pointed out, the betting markets are showing the same thinking - with the odds for lab shortening, and the odds for the libs lengthening
since 1996, watso's preference has gone to the libs, but it seems that watso's thinking is in line with a lot of other people, and it is time for a change.
just thinking about the "education revolution" and "skills shortage" -well, it was the when the labor party was last in office, that the year 12 participation rate, increased from about 30% to 70%. a better educated workforce, is a better workforce (better educated = better skills = better for the economy)
there certainly are times when the country needs a labor government, and now is one of those times
